Sri Lanka
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 17.3
- rank 122 of 197 · 3 years: 17.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +0.3
- rank 67 of 197 · 3 years: +0.8
- Shock absorbed
- 29%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.22
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; remittances relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Sri Lanka’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.82 | −0.86 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 23 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 1.2 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.74 | −1.02 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 2.5 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.72 | −0.62 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.9 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.67 | −0.59 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 14 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.6 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.56 | −0.56 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▲ 3 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.55 | −0.78 | −0.34 | 0 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.1 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.51 | −0.54 | −0.80 | −0.35 | 0 | 20 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.2 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.44 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.41 | −0.57 | −0.25 | 0 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.40 | −0.33 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.49 | −1.15 | −1.06 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.11 | −1.03 | −0.89 | −1.14 |
| AI labour shock | −0.82 | −0.37 | · | −1.00 | −0.87 | −1.03 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.73 | −0.36 | −0.85 | −1.18 | −0.97 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.39 | · | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.80 | −1.31 | −0.92 | −0.82 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.73 | −0.40 | −0.73 | · | −0.88 | −0.83 | −0.77 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.70 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.28 | −0.67 | −0.23 | −0.63 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.69 | −0.51 | −0.59 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.21 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.59 | −0.63 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.54 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.65 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.53 | · | −0.59 | −0.60 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Sri Lanka is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +23.0 | 23.4 | 0.5 | 26 | 41 | Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +16.2 | 17.7 | 1.6 | 39 | 50 | Intelligence & Assessment 7 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +14.3 | 17.3 | 3.0 | 32 | 30 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 16.8 | 6.3 | 42 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 32 | 94 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 29 | 77 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 20.3 | 23.7 | 39 | 80 | Investment Attraction & Projection 7 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.9 | 16.3 | 29.2 | 32 | 144 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −17.0 | 6.4 | 23.4 | 22 | 143 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.8 | 8.0 | 30.8 | 16 | 116 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Sri Lanka, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 92 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.5% Possible · rank 159 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 5.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 108 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 5.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 5.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 146 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 111 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 102 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 104 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 5.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 42 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 93 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 5.8 |
| Health system failure | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 172 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 |
| Food and water failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 121 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 97 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Resource Infrastructure 5.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 89 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 124 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 103 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 148 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 79 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 79 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 79 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.1 Nascent → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 54 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 2.8 |
| Capable digital government | 9.1 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |