Sweden
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 6.1
- rank 186 of 197 · 3 years: 6.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +35.7
- rank 9 of 197 · 3 years: +36.0
- Shock absorbed
- 59%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.01
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 1of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Information Environment & Strategic Communication
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; youth unemployment rate; few months of imports covered by reserves; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Sweden’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −0.61 | −1.37 | −0.56 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Resource Infrastructure 9.5 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.89 | −0.54 | −1.38 | −0.53 | 0 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.85 | −0.48 | −1.27 | −0.47 | 0 | 8 | Artificial Intelligence 12.7 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.90 | −0.48 | −1.14 | −0.46 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.9 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.63 | −0.39 | −0.93 | −0.38 | 0 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.1 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.78 | −0.37 | −0.86 | −0.36 | 0 | 13 | Maritime Power 11.7 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.69 | −0.33 | −0.86 | −0.33 | 0 | 8 | Economic Output & Productivity 14.7 · Established |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.51 | −0.25 | −0.66 | −0.24 | 0 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.4 · Established |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.22 | 0 | 7 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.1 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.36 | −0.18 | −0.50 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.35 | −0.82 | −0.76 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.63 | −0.81 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.70 | −0.61 | −0.65 | −0.61 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| AI labour shock | −0.53 | −0.24 | · | −0.64 | −0.56 | −0.66 | −0.56 | −0.55 | −0.55 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.62 | −0.34 | −0.62 | · | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.51 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.28 | −0.60 | −0.60 | · | −0.67 | −0.69 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.20 | −0.22 | · | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.45 | −0.73 | −0.51 | −0.46 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.47 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.16 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.12 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.25 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Sweden is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +64.5 | 65.2 | 0.8 | 76 | 5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +53.4 | 57.0 | 3.6 | 66 | 6 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +48.2 | 55.3 | 7.1 | 63 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +46.6 | 56.6 | 10.0 | 81 | 6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.6 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +37.5 | 40.2 | 2.7 | 77 | 6 | Intelligence & Assessment 14.8 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +30.9 | 39.0 | 8.1 | 78 | 5 | Transport Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +26.2 | 32.1 | 5.8 | 63 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +18.3 | 20.4 | 2.0 | 82 | 12 | Financial Infrastructure 16 · Advanced |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 71 | 79 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.5 · Established |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 81 | 105 | Energy Infrastructure 15.5 · Advanced |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Sweden, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.9 Advanced → Established | 2.0% Possible · rank 131 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 133 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 162 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×3.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 53 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 50 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 141 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 15.5 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 79 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 15.6 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 119 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 67 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 68 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Health system failure | 17.3 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 122 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 43 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 17.3 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 141 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 15.7 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 96 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 97 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 27 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 25 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Quantum Technologies 11.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.9 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Education pipeline failure | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Food and water failure | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 171 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.8 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 20% Likely · rank 9 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×0.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 14.1 Established → Advanced | 19% Likely · rank 6 | Clean power threshold Severe | ×0.9 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 18% Likely · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 16% Likely · rank 7 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Trusted public institutions | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 15% Likely · rank 7 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 14% Likely · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Capable digital government | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 13% Likely · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 11% Likely · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Research translated into value | 17.3 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 12 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 8 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 8.4% Likely · rank 8 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.2 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 15.7 Advanced → Advanced | 8.2% Likely · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 7.6% Likely · rank 10 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value international business | 16.1 Advanced → Advanced | 6.6% Likely · rank 10 | Market access opening Extreme | ×1.5 | Transport Infrastructure 15.3 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 3 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 5.5% Likely · rank 14 | Great-power détente Severe + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 4.0% Possible · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Secure food and water supply | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 4.0% Possible · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 15.9 Advanced → Advanced | 3.8% Possible · rank 7 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.4 Established → Established | 3.8% Possible · rank 7 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Assured space services | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 2.4% Possible · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Wider international influence | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 2.2% Possible · rank 9 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 7 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| Broad rise in national security | 12.0 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| More deployable joint force | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |