Timor-Leste
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 46.7
- rank 26 of 197 · 3 years: 46.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −28.5
- rank 190 of 197 · 3 years: −28.1
- Shock absorbed
- 14%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; remittances relative to gdp; share of population aged under 15; share of exports going to china and the united states; low real gdp per head; staple foods among the top five imports.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Timor-Leste’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.86 | −0.97 | −1.18 | −0.52 | ▼ 8 | 27 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.4 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.71 | −0.78 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.65 | −0.75 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.58 | −0.73 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.67 | −0.65 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.65 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.44 | −0.51 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.50 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.48 | −0.45 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 6 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.32 | −0.32 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Economic Output & Productivity 1.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.45 | −0.37 | −1.18 | −0.53 | −1.33 | −1.41 | −1.20 | −1.21 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.13 | −0.46 | −0.32 | −0.46 | −1.07 | −1.03 | −1.07 | −1.04 | −1.41 |
| AI labour shock | −0.13 | −0.42 | · | −1.13 | −0.99 | −1.17 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −0.95 | −0.26 | −0.90 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.98 | −0.73 | −0.84 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.13 | −0.56 | −0.72 | · | −1.24 | −1.16 | −1.08 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.13 | −0.39 | −0.25 | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.10 | −0.74 | −0.51 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.57 | −0.73 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.90 | −0.70 | · | −1.01 | −1.04 | · | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.09 | −0.31 | −0.45 | −0.28 | −0.66 | −0.92 | −0.76 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.06 | −0.22 | · | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.75 | −0.52 | −0.47 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Timor-Leste is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 9 | 144 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −4.5 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 19 | 157 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 9.5 | 17.3 | 12 | 116 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −11.1 | 5.7 | 16.8 | 9 | 151 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −20.9 | 10.3 | 31.1 | 14 | 164 | Digital & Services Trade 2.3 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −21.3 | 3.8 | 25.1 | 10 | 176 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −32.0 | 1.7 | 33.7 | 3 | 162 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −38.7 | 4.7 | 43.4 | 17 | 186 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.3 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −38.9 | 4.9 | 43.9 | 8 | 194 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −69.0 | 3.2 | 72.2 | 9 | 194 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Timor-Leste, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 130 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 135 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Health system failure | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 30 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 135 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Food and water failure | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 43 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Major | ×1.9 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 57 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 118 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 159 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extreme | ×2.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 177 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 48 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 149 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Advanced Manufacturing 1.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×23 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 177 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.4 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |