Tunisia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 16.0
- rank 127 of 197 · 3 years: 15.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +4.4
- rank 58 of 197 · 3 years: +4.6
- Shock absorbed
- 31%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; adult obesity rate; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Tunisia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.87 | −0.78 | −1.13 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.9 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.72 | −0.76 | −1.12 | −0.49 | 0 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.5 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.79 | −0.71 | −1.10 | −0.48 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.64 | −0.66 | −0.96 | −0.42 | 0 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.61 | −0.63 | −0.89 | −0.39 | 0 | 21 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 2.7 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.65 | −0.62 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.7 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.68 | −0.60 | −0.85 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5.9 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.55 | −0.57 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 6 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.40 | −0.42 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.38 | −0.31 | −0.43 | −0.19 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.45 | −0.50 | −0.90 | −0.45 | −1.05 | −1.47 | −1.20 | −0.45 | −0.52 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.81 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.98 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.06 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.38 | −0.95 | −1.01 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| AI labour shock | −0.73 | −0.33 | · | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.91 | −0.77 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.36 | −0.84 | −0.77 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.81 | −0.75 | −0.65 | −0.83 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.81 | −0.44 | −0.81 | · | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.39 | · | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.81 | −1.32 | −0.92 | −0.82 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.25 | −0.67 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.55 | −0.63 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.54 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.49 | −0.47 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.66 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.23 | −0.50 | −0.50 | · | −0.56 | −0.58 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Tunisia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +21.2 | 23.9 | 2.7 | 38 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +15.4 | 25.8 | 10.4 | 37 | 71 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +9.2 | 15.5 | 6.2 | 41 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +8.9 | 19.7 | 10.9 | 29 | 91 | Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +8.4 | 18.6 | 10.1 | 39 | 72 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 23.5 | 19.6 | 32 | 61 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +1.8 | 24.5 | 22.7 | 41 | 63 | Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | 0.0 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 38 | 79 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 26 | 54 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 9.7 | 22.0 | 21 | 70 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Tunisia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 2.9% Possible · rank 40 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 2.3% Possible · rank 111 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 115 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 131 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Health system failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 62 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 |
| Food and water failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 57 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 107 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 91 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 45 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 130 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 61 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 112 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 96 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 95 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 100 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 48 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 99 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 73 | AI labour shock Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 73 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 74 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 60 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.1 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 66 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 65 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 39 | Market access opening Severe + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.0 Foundational → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 65 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.2 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 65 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 3.2 |
| Higher-value international business | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Infrastructure 7.1 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 68 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Infrastructure 7.1 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |