Ukraine
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 13.9
- rank 139 of 197 · 3 years: 13.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −5.0
- rank 92 of 197 · 3 years: −4.8
- Shock absorbed
- 39%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.17
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Investment Attraction & Projection
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ukraine’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.76 | −0.72 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.67 | −1.07 | −0.47 | 0 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.74 | −0.66 | −1.08 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Maritime Power 5.4 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.65 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Artificial Intelligence 5.7 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.58 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.92 | −0.53 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 17 | Maritime Power 5.3 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.50 | −0.49 | −0.74 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.44 | −0.66 | −0.29 | 0 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.50 | −0.43 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.7 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.34 | −0.52 | −0.23 | 0 | 10 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7.8 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.77 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.93 | −0.82 | −0.87 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.87 | −0.47 | −0.87 | · | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.37 | −0.88 | −0.82 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.87 |
| AI labour shock | −0.72 | −0.33 | · | −0.87 | −0.77 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.68 | −0.34 | −0.79 | −1.10 | −0.90 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.39 | −0.86 | −0.86 | · | −0.95 | −0.98 | · | −0.36 | −0.36 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.65 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.58 | −0.56 | −0.58 | −0.57 | −0.78 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.29 | · | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.59 | −0.96 | −0.67 | −0.60 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.64 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.61 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.40 | −0.38 | −0.41 | −0.44 | −0.33 | −0.37 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ukraine is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +16.3 | 20.8 | 4.5 | 40 | 56 | Energy Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.1 | 28.0 | 17.0 | 44 | 85 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.5 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 45 | 39 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 19.5 | 17.9 | 48 | 67 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 52 | 116 | Transport Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.6 | 34.0 | 35.7 | 42 | 86 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 40 | 89 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −8.2 | 14.3 | 22.5 | 29 | 61 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.1 | 7.2 | 21.3 | 30 | 120 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −32.1 | 11.8 | 43.9 | 41 | 196 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Ukraine, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 5.9% Likely · rank 14 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 2.8% Possible · rank 14 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 2.4% Possible · rank 7 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 4 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 129 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 30 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 101 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Possible · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.5 Transitional → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 30 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 6.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 97 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 6.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 9 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 40 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 19 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 32 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 |
| Health system failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 132 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 111 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 6.8 |
| Food and water failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×4.2 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 142 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 130 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 109 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 32 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Maritime Power 6.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | 1.6% Possible · rank 54 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Capable digital government | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 58 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 58 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 67 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.4 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 5.3 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.1 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 6.4 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 11.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 52 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 52 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 9.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 11.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 52 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |