United Arab Emirates
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 8.5
- rank 171 of 197 · 3 years: 8.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +12.5
- rank 35 of 197 · 3 years: +12.4
- Shock absorbed
- 48%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.07
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in United Arab Emirates’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.90 | −0.69 | −1.31 | −0.57 | 0 | 27 | Maritime Power 7.8 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.66 | −1.12 | −0.49 | 0 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.52 | −1.02 | −0.45 | 0 | 19 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.3 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.51 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.66 | −0.48 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.54 | −0.46 | −0.69 | −0.30 | 0 | 17 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.3 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.55 | −0.40 | −0.87 | −0.37 | 0 | 15 | Population Health 11.6 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.60 | −0.35 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.3 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.47 | −0.28 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Labour & Employment 9.6 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.36 | −0.24 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 11.5 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.39 | −0.92 | −0.85 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.88 | −0.82 | −0.71 | −0.91 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.85 | −0.47 | −0.85 | · | −1.03 | −0.97 | −0.90 | −0.39 | −0.44 |
| AI labour shock | −0.57 | −0.26 | · | −0.69 | −0.61 | −0.71 | −0.61 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.55 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.66 | −0.58 | −0.62 | −0.58 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.63 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.55 | −0.76 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.53 | −0.27 | −0.62 | −0.87 | −0.71 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.50 | −0.17 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.51 | −0.38 | −0.44 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.26 | −0.57 | −0.57 | · | −0.63 | −0.65 | · | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.17 | −0.19 | · | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.38 | −0.62 | −0.43 | −0.38 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.29 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what United Arab Emirates is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +36.6 | 38.5 | 1.8 | 53 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +30.9 | 33.9 | 3.0 | 53 | 44 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +20.5 | 22.2 | 1.8 | 52 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +15.8 | 22.4 | 6.6 | 41 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +15.4 | 33.4 | 18.0 | 60 | 23 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +9.6 | 28.2 | 18.6 | 53 | 67 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +7.0 | 21.9 | 15.0 | 34 | 37 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −4.4 | 12.6 | 17.0 | 46 | 97 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.7 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 1.1 | 8.9 | 47 | 184 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.7 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −15.0 | 17.5 | 32.5 | 51 | 159 | Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for United Arab Emirates, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 145 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 48 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 14.1 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 156 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 143 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 99 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 14.1 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 137 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 60 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 137 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 114 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 71 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 98 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 32 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 12.0 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Food and water failure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×3.9 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 87 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 165 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 61 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 13 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.9 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 11.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 18 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 117 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 138 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 12.5 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 118 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Maritime Power 9.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.3 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 129 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.6 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 12 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 3.7% Possible · rank 38 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 42 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Capable digital government | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 1.4% Possible · rank 45 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 44 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 34 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Major | ×1.9 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 |
| Higher-value international business | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 32 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Major | ×1.8 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 48 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 7.9 Foundational → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 42 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 38 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 12.5 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 38 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.9 Established → Advanced | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 37 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.2 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 41 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Severe | ×2.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 |
| Secure food and water supply | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 37 | Market access opening Severe + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 37 | Market access opening Extreme + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×2.4 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 |
| Research translated into value | 12.3 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 42 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 |
| Wider international influence | 13.9 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 36 | Great-power détente Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Stronger information environment | 10.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 14.1 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 12.2 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 42 | Great-power détente Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.0 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in national security | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 33 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 36 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 11.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 31 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 14.5 Established | — No route · rank 51 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |