North America · USA

United States

Baseline index 18.03Rank 1 of 197FrontierNorth AmericaAtlas profileAll results

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years: 3.4; rank 197 of 197 · 3 years: 3.3
Worst case: −2.8%; Core disaster · tail −2.5%
Opportunity · 10 years: +34.0; rank 11 of 197 · 3 years: +34.2
Best case: +87; Automated discovery step · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed: 66%; by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend: 0.00; expected index points from best practice
Breadth: 10of 10; scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link: Labour & Employment; weakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Global funding seizure, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; adult obesity rate; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in United States’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Core disaster (S07)

AI labour shock (S08)

Severe pandemic (S10)

Cryptographic trust break (S09)

Global funding seizure (S02)

Legitimacy rupture (S05)

Breadbasket failure (S06)

Hybrid coercion (S04)

Trade bloc rupture (S01)

Regional war spillover (S03)

−0.51

−0.46

−0.38

−0.37

−0.30

−0.21

−0.20

−0.19

−0.18

−0.16

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Bands lost	Weakest point
Core disaster S07	High 0.97	−0.51	−1.36	−0.51	16	Health System Capability 14.6 · Established
AI labour shock S08	High 0.90	−0.46	−1.34	−0.46	14	Labour & Employment 13.6 · Established
Severe pandemic S10	High 0.71	−0.38	−1.11	−0.38	11	Population Health 13.3 · Established
Cryptographic trust break S09	High 0.92	−0.37	−1.19	−0.37	9	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 13.6 · Established
Global funding seizure S02	High 0.73	−0.30	−0.91	−0.30	11	Labour & Employment 13.8 · Established
Legitimacy rupture S05	Medium 0.41	−0.21	−0.54	−0.21	6	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14 · Established
Breadbasket failure S06	Medium 0.36	−0.20	−0.56	−0.20	6	Early Childhood Development 13.1 · Established
Hybrid coercion S04	Medium 0.58	−0.19	−0.65	−0.19	4	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.3 · Advanced
Trade bloc rupture S01	Medium 0.37	−0.18	−0.55	−0.18	6	Export Capability & Sophistication 16.6 · Advanced
Regional war spillover S03	Medium 0.35	−0.16	−0.52	−0.16	6	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.5 · Advanced

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT Critical Technology	SI Strategic Infrastructure	NS National Security	HC Human Capital	II Information & Influence	GI Governance & Integrity	FS Financial Strength	PI Production & Innovation	TI Trade & Investment
Core disaster	−0.03	−0.76	−0.27	−0.60	−0.27	−0.68	−0.72	−0.62	−0.62
AI labour shock	−0.51	−0.23	·	−0.61	−0.54	−0.63	−0.54	−0.53	−0.53
Severe pandemic	−0.40	−0.20	−0.18	−0.48	−0.42	−0.45	−0.42	−0.41	−0.41
Cryptographic trust break	−0.47	−0.26	−0.52	·	−0.57	−0.54	−0.50	−0.21	−0.25
Global funding seizure	−0.18	−0.20	·	−0.20	−0.18	−0.41	−0.66	−0.46	−0.41
Legitimacy rupture	−0.12	−0.13	−0.26	−0.12	−0.28	−0.39	−0.32	−0.12	−0.14
Breadbasket failure	−0.10	−0.25	−0.09	−0.23	−0.22	−0.24	−0.25	−0.19	−0.22
Hybrid coercion	−0.14	−0.31	−0.33	·	−0.34	−0.35	·	−0.13	−0.13
Trade bloc rupture	−0.24	−0.09	−0.09	−0.09	−0.21	−0.21	−0.21	−0.21	−0.29
Regional war spillover	−0.09	−0.22	−0.22	−0.08	−0.08	−0.21	−0.19	−0.17	−0.21

Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what United States is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Automated discovery step S17 ↗	Gainer	+87.3	90.9	3.6	93	1	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7 · Advanced
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗	Gainer	+58.6	74.6	15.9	83	1	Health System Capability 15.7 · Advanced
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗	Gainer	+51.7	54.2	2.5	83	17	Health System Capability 15.7 · Advanced
Great-power détente S13 ↗	Gainer	+26.6	32.1	5.5	89	10	Export Capability & Sophistication 17 · Advanced
Clean power threshold S15 ↗	Gainer	+15.9	19.8	3.9	78	58	Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
Market access opening S12 ↗	Gainer	+15.0	19.5	4.5	77	24	Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
Public service leap S18 ↗	Gainer	+13.6	19.0	5.3	79	18	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.5 · Established
Middle East settlement S14 ↗	Gainer	+10.7	13.7	3.1	80	60	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.5 · Established
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗	Mixed	+4.0	10.7	6.6	77	81	Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
Debt service reset S11 ↗	Mixed	+0.2	2.2	2.0	78	93	Foundational Education 14.8 · Established

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for United States, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failure	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Loss of financial stability	18.0 Advanced → Established	0.7% Unlikely · rank 170	Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×3.7	Health System Capability 15.7
Breakdown of state function	16.0 Advanced → Established	0.6% Unlikely · rank 187	Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×3.7	Health System Capability 15.7
Broad fall in financial strength	18.1 Frontier → Established	0.5% Unlikely · rank 160	Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×4.1	Health System Capability 15.7
Broad fall in governance and integrity	16.0 Advanced → Established	0.3% Unlikely · rank 182	Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×4.4	Health System Capability 15.7
Loss of industrial capacity	17.9 Advanced → Established	0.2% Unlikely · rank 109	Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×4.4	Health System Capability 15.7
Broad fall in production and innovation	18.3 Frontier → Advanced	0.2% Remote · rank 109	Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×4.8	Health System Capability 15.7
Strategic awareness failure	19.9 Frontier → Advanced	0.1% Remote · rank 86	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×4.2	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Breakdown of information trust	18.1 Frontier → Established	0.1% Remote · rank 153	Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×4.9	Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15.7
Health system failure	14.8 Established → Transitional	0.1% Remote · rank 191	Core disaster Extremeplans fail	×3.7	Health System Capability 15.7
Broad fall in trade and investment	18.0 Frontier → Advanced	0.1% Remote · rank 156	Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail	×4.8	Health System Capability 15.7
Food and water failure	17.2 Advanced → Established	0.1% Remote · rank 163	Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×3.7	Health System Capability 15.7
Rupture in trade and supply	17.9 Advanced → Established	0.1% Remote · rank 173	Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×3.7	Health System Capability 15.7
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure	18.4 Frontier → Advanced	0.1% Remote · rank 131	Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail	×3.9	Health System Capability 15.7
Broad fall in human capital	15.8 Advanced → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 107	Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×4.9	Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15.7
Broad fall in information and influence	18.1 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 134	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×5.2	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Rule of law failure	15.4 Advanced → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 180	Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×5.2	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Diplomatic isolation	18.9 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 138	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×5.2	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Collapse in energy security	18.7 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 117	Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail	×4.7	Health System Capability 15.7
Failure of digital lifelines	19.2 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 85	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×5.2	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Education pipeline failure	14.9 Established → Transitional	under 0.1% Remote · rank 107	Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×5.2	Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15.7
Broad fall in critical technology	19.8 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 53	Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×5.9	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Broad fall in national security	19.8 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 74	Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×5.8	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Loss of advanced technology base	19.8 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 50	Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×6.5	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Defence readiness failure	19.6 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 116	Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×7.0	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6
Loss of strategic deterrence	19.9 Frontier → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 35	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×7.0	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.6

Routes to prosperity	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Trusted public institutions	16.0 Advanced → Advanced	21% Likely · rank 1	Automated discovery step Severe	×0.9	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7
Capable digital government	17.2 Advanced → Frontier	18% Likely · rank 7	Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Major	×1.0	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in governance and integrity	16.0 Advanced → Advanced	18% Likely · rank 5	Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Major	×1.0	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7
Broad rise in human capital	15.8 Advanced → Advanced	11% Likely · rank 1	Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.2	Health System Capability 15.7
Broad rise in trade and investment	18.0 Frontier → Frontier	11% Likely · rank 7	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1	Health System Capability 15.7 · reaches Frontier
Sophisticated export strength	17.9 Advanced → Frontier	8.1% Likely · rank 10	Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major	×1.1	Export Capability & Sophistication 17 · reaches Frontier
Adaptable skilled workforce	15.2 Advanced → Advanced	7.4% Likely · rank 5	Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.1	Health System Capability 15.7
Stronger health and biotechnology	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	5.2% Likely · rank 35	Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.3	Health System Capability 15.7 · reaches Frontier
Secure food and water supply	17.2 Advanced → Frontier	4.5% Possible · rank 10	Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Major	×1.1	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in financial strength	18.1 Frontier → Frontier	3.8% Possible · rank 9	Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.2	Health System Capability 15.7 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure	18.4 Frontier → Frontier	3.1% Possible · rank 18	Automated discovery step Extreme	×1.3	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7 · reaches Frontier
Deeper long-term finance	18.4 Frontier → Frontier	1.6% Possible · rank 15	Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.5	Health System Capability 15.7 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in critical technology	19.8 Frontier	— No route · rank 59	Already at the top of the scale	×7.4	—
Broad rise in national security	19.8 Frontier	— No route · rank 30	Already at the top of the scale	×6.2	—
Broad rise in information and influence	18.1 Frontier	— No route · rank 48	No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5	×2.1	—
Broad rise in production and innovation	18.3 Frontier	— No route · rank 53	No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5	×1.6	—
Assured space services	20.0 Frontier	— No route · rank 33	Already at the top of the scale	—	—
Frontier AI and compute	19.8 Frontier	— No route · rank 59	Already at the top of the scale	×9.1	—
Higher-value manufacturing	19.0 Frontier	— No route · rank 51	Already at the top of the scale	×1.9	—
Reliable low-cost energy	18.6 Frontier	— No route · rank 77	Already at the top of the scale	×1.4	—
More deployable joint force	19.6 Frontier	— No route · rank 28	Already at the top of the scale	×3.4	—
Stronger information environment	17.4 Advanced	— No route · rank 51	No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5	×1.6	—
Wider international influence	18.9 Frontier	— No route · rank 53	Already at the top of the scale	×2.8	—
Research translated into value	19.4 Frontier	— No route · rank 60	Already at the top of the scale	×2.7	—
Higher-value international business	18.7 Frontier	— No route · rank 71	Already at the top of the scale	×1.3	—