Vanuatu
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 49.4
- rank 21 of 197 · 3 years: 48.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.3
- rank 128 of 197 · 3 years: −9.7
- Shock absorbed
- 14%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.32
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Vanuatu’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.87 | −0.96 | −1.08 | −0.50 | ▼ 5 | 24 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.80 | −0.89 | −1.09 | −0.48 | ▼ 4 | 23 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.5 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.79 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.71 | −0.67 | −0.73 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.66 | −0.62 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.4 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.51 | −0.61 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▲ 3 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.45 | −0.51 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.58 | −0.51 | −0.56 | −0.26 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.48 | −0.49 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.47 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 5 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.15 | −1.30 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −1.43 | −1.33 | −1.14 | −1.47 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.31 | −0.32 | −1.09 | −0.49 | −1.22 | −1.31 | −1.12 | −1.12 |
| AI labour shock | −0.15 | −0.44 | · | −1.19 | −1.04 | −1.23 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.15 | −0.57 | −0.62 | · | −1.30 | −1.22 | −1.14 | −0.49 | −0.56 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.13 | −0.42 | −0.56 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −1.27 | −1.04 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.22 | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.15 | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.29 | −0.68 | −0.66 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.92 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.89 | −0.65 | · | −1.04 | −1.07 | · | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.11 | −0.33 | · | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.68 | −1.12 | −0.78 | −0.70 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −0.60 | −0.17 | −0.58 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.63 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Vanuatu is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +4.7 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 14 | 97 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +4.5 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 8 | 109 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 11 | 142 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.1 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 19 | 125 | Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 9.6 | 15.9 | 15 | 93 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −8.3 | 9.1 | 17.5 | 12 | 119 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −11.9 | 4.8 | 16.7 | 9 | 155 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −19.6 | 7.3 | 26.9 | 11 | 172 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.4 | 2.0 | 23.4 | 3 | 109 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −30.7 | 3.3 | 34.1 | 8 | 185 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Vanuatu, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 3.8% Possible · rank 48 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.2% Possible · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Major | ×2.1 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 87 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Food and water failure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 64 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.4 |
| Health system failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 128 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extreme | ×2.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 140 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 149 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 168 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×20 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 177 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 177 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 177 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |