Venezuela
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 30.8
- rank 70 of 197 · 3 years: 30.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −25.6
- rank 187 of 197 · 3 years: −25.6
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
- weakest point in 5 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; staple foods among the top five imports; share of exports going to china and the united states; consumer price inflation; urban share of population; low real gdp per head; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Venezuela’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.76 | −0.96 | −1.17 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 30 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.9 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.84 | −0.92 | −1.08 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 31 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.6 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.65 | −0.80 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 25 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.61 | −0.78 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 26 | Artificial Intelligence 0.4 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.60 | −0.77 | −0.94 | −0.41 | ▼ 2 | 28 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.3 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.68 | −0.77 | −0.95 | −0.41 | ▼ 3 | 27 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.61 | −0.66 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 26 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.54 | −0.60 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 22 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 1.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.1 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.29 | −0.33 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 13 | 16 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.1 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −1.03 | −0.51 | −0.42 | −1.24 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.53 | −0.59 | −1.07 | −0.53 | −1.25 | −1.73 | −1.42 | −0.53 | −0.61 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.99 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.94 | −0.91 | −0.94 | −0.93 | −1.27 |
| AI labour shock | −0.87 | −0.39 | · | −1.05 | −0.92 | −1.08 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.41 | −0.96 | −0.33 | −0.90 | −0.86 | −0.93 | −0.99 | −0.74 | −0.85 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.16 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.42 | −1.04 | −1.11 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.86 | −0.47 | −0.86 | · | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.91 | −0.39 | −0.44 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.39 | · | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.81 | −1.31 | −0.92 | −0.82 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.55 | · | −0.61 | −0.63 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.43 | −0.40 | −0.34 | −0.44 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Venezuela is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 15.0 | 7.4 | 21 | 99 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.3 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 18 | 130 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −10.8 | 13.8 | 24.5 | 22 | 150 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.3 | 12.7 | 24.0 | 17 | 141 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −11.4 | 11.5 | 22.8 | 20 | 124 | Digital & Services Trade 3.3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −22.0 | 14.7 | 36.8 | 19 | 180 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −25.3 | 5.0 | 30.3 | 11 | 135 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −25.8 | 7.3 | 33.1 | 13 | 174 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −48.5 | 2.5 | 51.1 | 24 | 195 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −68.8 | 4.3 | 73.1 | 19 | 192 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Venezuela, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 2.7% Possible · rank 88 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Health system failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 9 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 112 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×1.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 42 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×1.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Food and water failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 44 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Major | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 64 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Artificial Intelligence 2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 124 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 180 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 75 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 15 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 157 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 78 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 109 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 100 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 50 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 109 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 129 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 91 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×4.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |