Vietnam
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 13.6
- rank 142 of 197 · 3 years: 13.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +7.7
- rank 47 of 197 · 3 years: +8.0
- Shock absorbed
- 38%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.17
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Political Institutions & Civic Participation
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Vietnam’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.93 | −0.82 | −1.38 | −0.60 | ▼ 6 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.78 | −0.67 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 21 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4.4 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.71 | −0.67 | −1.10 | −0.48 | 0 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.9 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.70 | −0.65 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 19 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.73 | −0.63 | −1.06 | −0.47 | 0 | 17 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 6.7 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.70 | −0.55 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 7.7 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.63 | −0.51 | −0.88 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.51 | −0.47 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.2 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.67 | −0.46 | −0.74 | −0.32 | 0 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.36 | −0.34 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade bloc rupture | −1.08 | −0.42 | −0.37 | −0.42 | −0.97 | −0.93 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −1.31 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.87 | −0.48 | −0.87 | · | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.76 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| AI labour shock | −0.72 | −0.33 | · | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.36 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.81 | −0.75 | −0.65 | −0.83 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.33 | −0.36 | · | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.74 | −1.20 | −0.84 | −0.75 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.77 | −0.25 | −0.61 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.55 | −0.27 | −0.64 | −0.89 | −0.73 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.34 | −0.75 | −0.75 | · | −0.83 | −0.85 | · | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.40 | −0.38 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.32 | −0.37 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Vietnam is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +29.7 | 31.9 | 2.2 | 47 | 46 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +27.3 | 28.4 | 1.1 | 43 | 34 | Energy Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +14.4 | 38.9 | 24.5 | 53 | 26 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +12.5 | 13.8 | 1.2 | 41 | 55 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +7.9 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 40 | 23 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +6.3 | 22.2 | 15.8 | 38 | 50 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −0.5 | 23.4 | 24.0 | 32 | 49 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.7 | 20.2 | 22.9 | 47 | 93 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 18.3 | 21.1 | 47 | 121 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −4.8 | 32.2 | 37.0 | 39 | 65 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Vietnam, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 125 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 93 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.1 Established → Transitional | 1.6% Possible · rank 30 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Energy Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 77 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 69 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 33 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 24 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 39 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 46 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 92 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 1 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 19 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 61 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 42 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 41 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 5 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 48 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Health system failure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 166 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.5 Transitional → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Energy Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 52 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Food and water failure | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 135 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 118 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 151 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×4.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Higher-value international business | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 17 | Market access opening Extreme | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 2.2% Possible · rank 25 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 12.7 Established → Established | 2.2% Possible · rank 23 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 39 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.8 | Energy Technologies 6.8 |
| Capable digital government | 11.5 Transitional → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 42 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Major | ×1.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.6 Foundational → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 41 | Market access opening Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 6.3 Foundational → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 37 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 47 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 57 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 35 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Severe | ×2.1 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.1 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 35 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Severe | ×2.1 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Wider international influence | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 28 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Extreme | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Research translated into value | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 41 | Market access opening Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 6.0 Nascent → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.5 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.9 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Great-power détente Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Stronger information environment | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Great-power détente Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.7 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Technologies 6.8 |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 49 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 49 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 49 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |