Angola
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 27.8
- rank 78 of 197 · 3 years: 27.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −21.2
- rank 180 of 197 · 3 years: −21.4
- Shock absorbed
- 19%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of population aged under 15; industry as a share of gdp; low life expectancy at birth; consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; staple foods among the top five imports; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Angola’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.90 | −0.92 | −1.14 | −0.50 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.8 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.71 | −0.87 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 5 | 18 | Population Health 2.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.59 | −0.73 | −0.88 | −0.40 | ▲ 3 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.61 | −0.69 | −0.85 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.66 | −0.64 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Labour & Employment 3.2 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.54 | −0.59 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 13 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 3.9 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.47 | −0.57 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▲ 6 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0.1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.50 | −0.55 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.29 | −0.32 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 13 | 11 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 1.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.33 | −0.30 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 5 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.45 | −0.60 | −1.08 | −0.54 | −1.26 | −1.76 | −1.45 | −0.54 | −0.62 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.41 | −1.09 | −0.38 | −1.03 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −1.12 | −0.84 | −0.96 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.63 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.63 | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.86 | −0.83 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −1.16 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.35 | −0.42 | · | −0.43 | −0.39 | −0.87 | −1.42 | −0.99 | −0.88 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.88 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.32 | −0.79 | −0.84 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| AI labour shock | −0.55 | −0.30 | · | −0.79 | −0.69 | −0.81 | −0.69 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.59 | −0.40 | −0.73 | · | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.77 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.39 | −0.33 | −0.43 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.22 | −0.49 | −0.49 | · | −0.54 | −0.56 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Angola is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 15 | 56 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 28 | 44 | Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 16 | 69 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 8.5 | 13.5 | 15 | 157 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −12.4 | 13.6 | 26.1 | 16 | 158 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.8 | 6.2 | 21.0 | 13 | 131 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −26.9 | 17.2 | 44.1 | 23 | 177 | Technical & Vocational Skills 4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −34.7 | 8.9 | 43.5 | 26 | 183 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.5 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −38.1 | 2.4 | 40.5 | 6 | 183 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −59.9 | 6.9 | 66.8 | 16 | 183 | Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Angola, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 2.9% Possible · rank 43 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 2.1% Possible · rank 120 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 70 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Food and water failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 34 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 36 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 121 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 64 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 70 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 72 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 4.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 74 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 79 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 147 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 4.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 51 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 128 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 67 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 49 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 115 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 115 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 5.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 122 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 86 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |