Egypt
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 12.2
- rank 153 of 197 · 3 years: 12.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +6.1
- rank 53 of 197 · 3 years: +6.3
- Shock absorbed
- 34%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.16
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; adult obesity rate; consumer price inflation; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; staple foods among the top five imports; industry as a share of gdp; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Egypt’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.82 | −0.79 | −1.06 | −0.46 | ▼ 4 | 24 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.2 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.80 | −0.77 | −1.25 | −0.55 | ▼ 6 | 21 | Population Health 7.2 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.78 | −0.72 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.9 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.59 | −0.61 | −0.88 | −0.39 | 0 | 15 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.4 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.64 | −0.56 | −0.90 | −0.39 | ▼ 3 | 15 | Financial System Depth & Access 8 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.44 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▼ 2 | 10 | Labour & Employment 6.2 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.40 | −0.40 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Labour & Employment 6.5 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.43 | −0.36 | −0.63 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 7.6 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.35 | −0.33 | −0.52 | −0.23 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.48 | −0.33 | −0.53 | −0.23 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.46 | −0.50 | −0.91 | −0.46 | −1.07 | −1.49 | −1.22 | −0.46 | −0.52 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.41 | −0.96 | −0.33 | −0.90 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.99 | −0.74 | −0.84 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.94 | −0.51 | −0.94 | · | −1.14 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| AI labour shock | −0.67 | −0.31 | · | −0.81 | −0.71 | −0.84 | −0.71 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.85 | −0.27 | −0.67 | −0.30 | −0.76 | −0.81 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.29 | · | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.97 | −0.68 | −0.61 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.42 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.51 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.21 | −0.49 | −0.45 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.44 | −0.37 | −0.48 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.53 | · | −0.59 | −0.61 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Egypt is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +28.5 | 31.2 | 2.7 | 44 | 3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +22.1 | 32.4 | 10.3 | 41 | 33 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +17.7 | 34.8 | 17.0 | 44 | 34 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +12.6 | 17.3 | 4.7 | 43 | 81 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 35 | 86 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 30 | 53 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −2.2 | 17.8 | 20.0 | 33 | 85 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 13.8 | 17.1 | 37 | 140 | Energy Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −3.5 | 20.0 | 23.5 | 44 | 82 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −9.4 | 13.9 | 23.3 | 24 | 65 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Egypt, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 132 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 127 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 76 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Food and water failure | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Possible · rank 37 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 148 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 74 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 62 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 127 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 72 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 69 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 2.3 |
| Health system failure | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 133 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 139 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 9.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 84 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 9.2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 98 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 65 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 61 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 146 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 45 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 143 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 9.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 131 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 64 | AI labour shock Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Quantum Technologies 2.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×4.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.0 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 60 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.5 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 30 | Market access opening Major + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×1.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Capable digital government | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 56 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.1 Foundational → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 57 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 7.7 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 52 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.6 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 61 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.6 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×3.2 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 4.4 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.9 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Wider international influence | 10.9 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.9 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 |
| Research translated into value | 8.5 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Higher-value international business | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 5.1 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.1 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 |
| Broad rise in national security | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.7 Transitional → Established | — Remote · rank 59 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 12.0 Established | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 10.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |