Finland
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 7.4
- rank 179 of 197 · 3 years: 7.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +31.3
- rank 13 of 197 · 3 years: +31.7
- Shock absorbed
- 58%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.04
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Information Environment & Strategic Communication
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of population aged 65 and over; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Finland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.89 | −0.61 | −1.29 | −0.53 | 0 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 8.7 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.85 | −0.55 | −1.32 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.6 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.97 | −0.49 | −1.07 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Maritime Power 9.2 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.83 | −0.49 | −1.24 | −0.47 | 0 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 11 · Transitional |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.89 | −0.47 | −1.13 | −0.44 | 0 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.6 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.76 | −0.39 | −0.95 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Economic Output & Productivity 12.1 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.38 | −0.86 | −0.36 | 0 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.7 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.35 | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.22 | 0 | 12 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 13 · Established |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.47 | −0.22 | −0.60 | −0.22 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.1 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.35 | −0.18 | −0.49 | −0.18 | 0 | 10 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.1 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.35 | −0.82 | −0.76 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.63 | −0.81 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.59 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.71 | −0.62 | −0.67 | −0.62 | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.36 | −0.79 | −0.79 | · | −0.88 | −0.91 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| AI labour shock | −0.55 | −0.25 | · | −0.66 | −0.58 | −0.68 | −0.58 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.61 | −0.33 | −0.61 | · | −0.74 | −0.69 | −0.65 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.26 | · | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.53 | −0.86 | −0.60 | −0.54 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.49 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.43 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.60 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.26 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.42 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.15 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Finland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +57.6 | 58.5 | 0.9 | 71 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +49.7 | 53.9 | 4.2 | 62 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 10 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +42.9 | 55.1 | 12.1 | 73 | 10 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 · Established |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +41.4 | 49.1 | 7.7 | 56 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +35.8 | 39.0 | 3.2 | 74 | 10 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 14 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +22.0 | 31.3 | 9.3 | 76 | 13 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +19.8 | 26.9 | 7.1 | 57 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +18.9 | 20.8 | 1.9 | 81 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15.6 · Advanced |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 72 | 82 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 · Established |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 81 | 81 | Energy Infrastructure 15.4 · Advanced |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Finland, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 17.4 Advanced → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 13.3 Established → Transitional | 1.7% Possible · rank 18 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 12.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.5% Possible · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 15.9 Advanced → Established | 1.5% Possible · rank 118 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 17.4 Advanced → Established | 1.4% Possible · rank 93 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 44 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 34 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 29 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 10 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 129 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13 |
| Rule of law failure | 17.6 Advanced → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 97 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Quantum Technologies 12.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 110 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in national security | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 18 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Defence readiness failure | 13.2 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 21 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Health system failure | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 112 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 52 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×4.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 94 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 15.5 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Food and water failure | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 111 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 53 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 30 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.9 | Quantum Technologies 12.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.8 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Education pipeline failure | 17.4 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 97 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 13.0 Established → Established | 18% Likely · rank 8 | Clean power threshold Severe | ×0.9 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 15% Likely · rank 15 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Trusted public institutions | 17.4 Advanced → Frontier | 14% Likely · rank 10 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Capable digital government | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 12% Likely · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 17.4 Advanced → Frontier | 12% Likely · rank 11 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 12% Likely · rank 12 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 |
| Research translated into value | 16.3 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 13 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.2 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 14.1 Established → Advanced | 8.1% Likely · rank 11 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 10.3 Transitional → Established | 6.6% Likely · rank 23 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 13 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 4 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 15.5 Advanced → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 12 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 15.1 Advanced → Advanced | 4.8% Possible · rank 16 | Great-power détente Severe + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 4.6% Possible · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Higher-value international business | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 4.4% Possible · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 3.8% Possible · rank 18 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Deeper long-term finance | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 3.6% Possible · rank 8 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Secure food and water supply | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 3.3% Possible · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 8.9 Foundational → Transitional | 2.6% Possible · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Wider international influence | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 1.6% Possible · rank 12 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.5 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 14 |
| Stronger information environment | 12.1 Established → Established | 1.5% Possible · rank 12 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 13.1 Established → Established | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 16 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad rise in national security | 11.0 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 |
| More deployable joint force | 12.9 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 |