Georgia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 21.0
- rank 100 of 197 · 3 years: 20.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.7
- rank 91 of 197 · 3 years: −4.4
- Shock absorbed
- 31%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Georgia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −0.97 | −1.37 | −0.60 | ▼ 3 | 26 | Maritime Power 1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −0.82 | −1.20 | −0.53 | ▼ 3 | 24 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.81 | −1.06 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.91 | −0.71 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 6 | 22 | Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.68 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 2.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.60 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.72 | −0.58 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.58 | −0.47 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Economic Output & Productivity 5.9 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.48 | −0.41 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.36 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.3 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.55 | −1.30 | −1.20 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −1.25 | −1.17 | −1.00 | −1.28 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.86 | −0.43 | −0.36 | −1.05 | −0.92 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.01 | −0.57 | −1.05 | · | −1.28 | −1.20 | −1.12 | −0.48 | −0.55 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.53 | −1.15 | −1.15 | · | −1.28 | −1.32 | · | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| AI labour shock | −0.75 | −0.34 | · | −0.91 | −0.79 | −0.94 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.75 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.68 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.96 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.67 | −0.33 | −0.78 | −1.09 | −0.89 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.28 | −0.31 | · | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.64 | −1.04 | −0.73 | −0.65 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.62 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.56 | −0.59 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.15 | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Georgia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +12.2 | 16.7 | 4.5 | 25 | 71 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 20.5 | 17.3 | 31 | 120 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +3.1 | 13.6 | 10.5 | 41 | 100 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 44 | 68 | Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +1.0 | 16.2 | 15.1 | 41 | 65 | Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −7.0 | 13.5 | 20.5 | 32 | 111 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.6 | 23.7 | 32.3 | 32 | 123 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −14.7 | 7.2 | 22.0 | 15 | 73 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −15.1 | 6.4 | 21.6 | 22 | 132 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.5 | 6.5 | 21.9 | 30 | 173 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Georgia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 8.8% Likely · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 4.2% Possible · rank 1 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Rule of law failure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 2.2% Possible · rank 7 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 37 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 10 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.7% Possible · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 7 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 12 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 4 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 6 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 54 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Food and water failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 118 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 74 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 74 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 75 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.6 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |