Honduras
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 26.5
- rank 82 of 197 · 3 years: 26.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −9.6
- rank 123 of 197 · 3 years: −9.3
- Shock absorbed
- 21%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of exports going to china and the united states.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Honduras’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.85 | −0.88 | −1.18 | −0.52 | ▼ 7 | 28 | Energy Infrastructure 4.2 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.74 | −0.86 | −1.07 | −0.48 | ▼ 1 | 29 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.77 | −0.97 | −0.43 | 0 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.77 | −0.76 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 2 | 25 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.60 | −0.69 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.59 | −0.69 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.59 | −0.64 | −0.73 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.57 | −0.55 | −0.71 | −0.31 | 0 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 3.7 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.31 | −0.38 | −0.49 | −0.22 | 0 | 14 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.8 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.34 | −0.31 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.05 | −1.32 | −0.42 | −1.05 | −0.47 | −1.18 | −1.26 | −1.08 | −1.08 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.46 | −1.16 | −1.03 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.12 | −1.04 | −0.89 | −1.15 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.73 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −1.01 | −0.88 | −0.95 | −0.88 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.41 | −0.49 | −0.89 | −0.45 | −1.04 | −1.45 | −1.19 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.74 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.36 | −0.83 | −0.80 | −0.83 | −0.82 | −1.12 |
| AI labour shock | −0.69 | −0.36 | · | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.73 | −0.46 | −0.84 | · | −1.02 | −0.96 | −0.89 | −0.38 | −0.44 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.32 | −0.36 | · | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.74 | −1.20 | −0.84 | −0.75 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.16 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.23 | −0.50 | −0.50 | · | −0.56 | −0.57 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Honduras is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +11.3 | 13.5 | 2.2 | 17 | 77 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 19 | 112 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.5 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 30 | 51 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | 0.0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 26 | 121 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.2 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −7.2 | 13.2 | 20.3 | 18 | 112 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −10.3 | 12.6 | 22.9 | 19 | 126 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −12.6 | 7.7 | 20.3 | 19 | 159 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −13.7 | 17.1 | 30.8 | 29 | 130 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −20.2 | 7.8 | 28.1 | 15 | 163 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −28.3 | 3.6 | 31.9 | 8 | 148 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Honduras, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 2.5% Possible · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 2.2% Possible · rank 77 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×2.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 47 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 37 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 105 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 59 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 84 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Health system failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 98 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 64 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Food and water failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 92 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 47 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 81 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 103 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 111 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 136 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 143 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 167 | Core disaster Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 1.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.0 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.9 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |