Nigeria
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 13.1
- rank 145 of 197 · 3 years: 12.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.1
- rank 109 of 197 · 3 years: −8.2
- Shock absorbed
- 29%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.17
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; remittances relative to gdp; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Nigeria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.69 | −0.77 | −1.09 | −0.47 | ▼ 4 | 21 | Population Health 2.9 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.77 | −0.69 | −0.99 | −0.43 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Internal Security & Order 5.7 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.61 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Population Health 3.2 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.58 | −0.57 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.48 | −0.52 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 3 | 16 | Labour & Employment 4.4 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.49 | −0.49 | −0.63 | −0.27 | ▲ 3 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.42 | −0.43 | −0.63 | −0.27 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.43 | −0.37 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Labour & Employment 4.6 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.27 | −0.27 | −0.40 | −0.17 | ▲ 5 | 10 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.29 | −0.23 | −0.33 | −0.14 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.3 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.40 | −0.95 | −0.33 | −0.90 | −0.85 | −0.92 | −0.98 | −0.73 | −0.84 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.40 | −0.44 | −0.80 | −0.40 | −0.93 | −1.30 | −1.06 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.64 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.78 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.86 | −0.28 | −0.68 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| AI labour shock | −0.58 | −0.26 | · | −0.70 | −0.62 | −0.73 | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.64 | −0.35 | −0.64 | · | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.57 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.51 | −0.49 | −0.51 | −0.50 | −0.69 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.22 | −0.24 | · | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.50 | −0.81 | −0.57 | −0.50 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.36 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.36 | · | −0.41 | −0.42 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Nigeria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +23.1 | 26.2 | 3.1 | 33 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 17.4 | 11.3 | 33 | 103 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 35 | 43 | Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.1 | 25.5 | 21.4 | 29 | 59 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 34 | 63 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −4.4 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 23 | 62 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 25.2 | 29.9 | 37 | 86 | Technical & Vocational Skills 6.5 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.1 | 6.2 | 29.3 | 17 | 121 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −23.4 | 13.2 | 36.6 | 40 | 174 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −45.2 | 11.2 | 56.4 | 30 | 175 | Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Nigeria, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 154 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 180 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Food and water failure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 40 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Health system failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 73 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 167 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 153 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 147 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 172 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 111 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 164 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 124 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Health System Capability 7.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 112 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Health System Capability 7.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 127 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 111 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 89 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 167 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 |
| Defence readiness failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 102 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 102 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | — Remote · rank 93 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 7.4 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 77 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.6 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 77 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 53 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.0 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 51 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.9 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 40 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.0 Foundational → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 66 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.4 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 6.5 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.3 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Higher-value international business | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.4 | Technical & Vocational Skills 6.5 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.8 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 85 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |