Afghanistan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 89.1
- rank 4 of 197 · 3 years: 89.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −15.1
- rank 165 of 197 · 3 years: −14.7
- Shock absorbed
- 6%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.29
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; no coastline; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Afghanistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.80 | −0.99 | −1.06 | −0.52 | 0 | 9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.84 | −0.89 | −0.93 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.70 | −0.83 | −0.90 | −0.43 | 0 | 9 | Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.76 | −0.79 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.54 | −0.61 | −0.64 | −0.31 | 0 | 6 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.43 | −0.54 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.42 | −0.42 | −0.43 | −0.20 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.36 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.18 | ▲ 3 | 6 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.28 | −0.33 | −0.35 | −0.15 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.35 | −0.31 | −0.33 | −0.15 | ▼ 1 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.02 | −1.40 | −0.37 | −1.31 | −1.15 | −1.31 | −1.33 | −0.93 | −1.12 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.02 | −1.42 | −0.61 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.39 | −1.25 | −0.98 | −1.15 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −1.31 | −0.33 | −1.05 | −0.47 | −1.15 | −1.12 | −0.95 | −1.04 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.02 | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.54 | −1.16 | −1.41 | −1.32 | −0.53 | −0.56 |
| AI labour shock | −0.02 | −0.38 | · | −0.90 | −0.89 | −0.88 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.79 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.23 | −0.79 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.68 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.46 | · | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.67 | −0.30 | −0.35 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.02 | −0.28 | · | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.57 | −0.92 | −0.65 | −0.53 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.62 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.02 | −0.58 | −0.40 | · | −0.65 | −0.67 | · | −0.24 | −0.24 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Afghanistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5 | 105 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −6.1 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 6 | 109 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.5 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 5 | 165 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −6.9 | 2.4 | 9.3 | 10 | 182 | Financial System Depth & Access 1.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −9.5 | 4.5 | 14.0 | 10 | 160 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 1.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 4.1 | 19.3 | 6 | 142 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 0.7 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −16.8 | 3.8 | 20.6 | 5 | 163 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −28.8 | 3.5 | 32.4 | 4 | 196 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −29.5 | 0.7 | 30.2 | 3 | 181 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −34.5 | 0.5 | 35.0 | 1 | 171 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Afghanistan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 7 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Health system failure | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 35 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 1.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×150 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×14 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Education pipeline failure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Breakdown of state function | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.1 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×23 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.1 of 1.5 | ×30 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.1 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Wider international influence | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Capable digital government | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |