Load test · S08 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

DTechnology and infrastructureScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.66
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−1.17
North Korea
Lose a domain band
163
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.24
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.46Canada: −0.51North America mean: −0.48Europe 42France: −0.50United Kingdom: −0.52Germany: −0.47Netherlands: −0.51Sweden: −0.48Switzerland: −0.50Norway: −0.50Finland: −0.49Denmark: −0.51Spain: −0.63Italy: −0.64Belgium: −0.61Austria: −0.57Poland: −0.62Ireland: −0.59Portugal: −0.64Czechia: −0.64Estonia: −0.59Luxembourg: −0.70Lithuania: −0.67Greece: −0.75Hungary: −0.70Slovenia: −0.66Romania: −0.73Slovakia: −0.70Latvia: −0.71Iceland: −0.68Croatia: −0.72Serbia: −0.75Bulgaria: −0.75Malta: −0.78Cyprus: −0.82Liechtenstein: −0.71North Macedonia: −0.83Montenegro: −0.86Albania: −0.80Monaco: −0.92Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.87Andorra: −0.85San Marino: −0.75Kosovo: −0.85Holy See: −0.74Europe mean: −0.67China 1China: −0.50China mean: −0.50Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.49South Korea: −0.46Singapore: −0.45Australia: −0.53Taiwan: −0.63New Zealand: −0.60Malaysia: −0.66Thailand: −0.71Indonesia: −0.64Vietnam: −0.65Philippines: −0.84Mongolia: −0.79Brunei: −0.80Fiji: −0.84Cambodia: −0.72North Korea: −1.17Myanmar: −0.81Papua New Guinea: −0.65Laos: −0.79Samoa: −0.86Tonga: −0.78Timor-Leste: −0.75Vanuatu: −0.79Solomon Islands: −0.72Palau: −0.80Marshall Islands: −0.93Micronesia: −0.84Kiribati: −0.95Tuvalu: −0.91Nauru: −1.00Indo-Pacific mean: −0.75North KoreaKiribatiNauruSouth Asia 8India: −0.72Pakistan: −0.65Sri Lanka: −0.74Bangladesh: −0.71Nepal: −0.81Maldives: −0.92Bhutan: −0.86Afghanistan: −0.61South Asia mean: −0.75Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.47Türkiye: −0.56United Arab Emirates: −0.52Saudi Arabia: −0.56Qatar: −0.61Egypt: −0.61Iran: −0.66Oman: −0.65Kuwait: −0.75Jordan: −0.74Bahrain: −0.69Iraq: −0.75Lebanon: −0.74Palestine: −0.80Syria: −0.61Yemen: −0.49Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.64Africa 53South Africa: −0.59Morocco: −0.66Mauritius: −0.63Tunisia: −0.66Nigeria: −0.52Kenya: −0.53Ghana: −0.61Algeria: −0.67Senegal: −0.62Botswana: −0.71Namibia: −0.64Rwanda: −0.51Tanzania: −0.43Ethiopia: −0.45Uganda: −0.46Côte d'Ivoire: −0.59Seychelles: −0.72Zambia: −0.58Cabo Verde: −0.73Angola: −0.57Cameroon: −0.61Zimbabwe: −0.63Mozambique: −0.49Benin: −0.55Togo: −0.59Gabon: −0.64Madagascar: −0.52Malawi: −0.51Eswatini: −0.65Sierra Leone: −0.50Mauritania: −0.57Burkina Faso: −0.48Lesotho: −0.60Mali: −0.54Gambia: −0.63Djibouti: −0.80Congo: −0.58Guinea: −0.50Niger: −0.54Libya: −0.74Liberia: −0.51DR Congo: −0.50São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.77Equatorial Guinea: −0.68Sudan: −0.62Burundi: −0.49Comoros: −0.59Chad: −0.42Guinea-Bissau: −0.55Eritrea: −0.50Central African Rep.: −0.46Somalia: −0.54South Sudan: −0.53Africa mean: −0.58TanzaniaEthiopiaChadLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.57Mexico: −0.59Chile: −0.58Argentina: −0.64Colombia: −0.62Peru: −0.63Uruguay: −0.65Costa Rica: −0.69Panama: −0.70Dominican Republic: −0.71Ecuador: −0.70Trinidad & Tobago: −0.70Jamaica: −0.72Cuba: −0.80Paraguay: −0.67El Salvador: −0.70Guatemala: −0.68Barbados: −0.74Bahamas: −0.80Bolivia: −0.69Honduras: −0.69Venezuela: −0.78Guyana: −0.55Nicaragua: −0.64Antigua & Barbuda: −0.74Grenada: −0.73Suriname: −0.68Belize: −0.71Dominica: −0.72Saint Lucia: −0.78Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.74Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.75Haiti: −0.61Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.69Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.61Ukraine: −0.65Kazakhstan: −0.69Georgia: −0.68Belarus: −0.71Azerbaijan: −0.67Armenia: −0.70Moldova: −0.73Uzbekistan: −0.70Kyrgyzstan: −0.75Tajikistan: −0.58Turkmenistan: −0.54Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.67
  • Region mean
Lowest: North Korea, Nauru, Kiribati. Highest: Ethiopia, Tanzania, Chad.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.46France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.50United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.52Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.47Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.49South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.46China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.50Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.51Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.48Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.45Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.51Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.53Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.50Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.50Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.49Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.47Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.63Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.51Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.63Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.64Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.61New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.60Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.57India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.72Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.62Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.61Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.56Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.59United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.52Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.57Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.64Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.64Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.59Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.66Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.56Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.59Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.70South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.59Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.67Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.71Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.58Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.75Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.70Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.66Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.73Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.70Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.64Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.71Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.65Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.68Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.72Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.65Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.61Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.66Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.64Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.62Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.61Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.75Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.75Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.78Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.84Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.63Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.65Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.82Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.66Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.69Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.63Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.65Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.65Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.69Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.66Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.68Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.75Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.74Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.52Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.69Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.74Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.71Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.53Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.70Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.61Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.67Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.71Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.71Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.67Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.70Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.71Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.70Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.70North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.83Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.62Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.86Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.73Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.72Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.80Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.71Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.64Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.80Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.51Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.70Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.92Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.43Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.87Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.67Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.79Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.45El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.70Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.68Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.80Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.74Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.46Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.59Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.72Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.80Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.84Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.85Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.69Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.69San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.75Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.81Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.58Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.72Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.75Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.73Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.85Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.75Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.74Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.92Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.57Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.78Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.55Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.61Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.64Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.74Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.63North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −1.17Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.49Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.55Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.59Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.73Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.68Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.71Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.58Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.64Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.86Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.52Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.81Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.72Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.78Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.74Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.65Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.51Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.75Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.80Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.65Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.79Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.50Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.57Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.54Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.86Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.48Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.60Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.54Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.63Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.78Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.80Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.58Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.50Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.54Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.74Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.75Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.51Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.79Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.72DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.50São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.77Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.80Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.68Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.62Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.49Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.93Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.84Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.59Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.42Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.61Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.95Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.91Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.55Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.61Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.50Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −1.00Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.74Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.46Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.49Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.54Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.61South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.53TanzaniaEthiopiaNorth KoreaChadKiribatiNauru
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Governance & Integrity

Human Capital

Information & Influence

Financial Strength

Production & Innovation

Trade & Investment

Critical Technology

Strategic Infrastructure

National Security

−0.95

−0.92

−0.81

−0.81

−0.79

−0.79

−0.53

−0.34

0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 1.004.263.09−1.17−27.4▼ 1224 · 2d9%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.911.960.96−1.00−51.1▼ 412 · 2d9%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
KiribatiIndo-PacificHigh 0.832.201.26−0.95−42.9▼ 314 · 1d10%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.782.481.55−0.93−37.4▼ 313 · 2d10%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 0.955.915.00−0.92−15.5▼ 417 · 4d31%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
MaldivesSouth AsiaHigh 0.854.623.70−0.92−20.0▼ 626 · 2d21%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
TuvaluIndo-PacificHigh 0.802.121.21−0.91−43.0▼ 36 · 1d9%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeHigh 0.785.804.93−0.87−15.0▼ 615 · 3d24%Artificial Intelligence 0.2 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.826.355.49−0.86−13.6▼ 212 · 4d28%Artificial Intelligence 0.6 · Inception
BhutanSouth AsiaHigh 0.773.933.07−0.86−21.8▼ 816 · 3d19%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
SamoaIndo-PacificHigh 0.763.482.61−0.86−24.8▼ 522 · 5d15%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
AndorraEuropeHigh 0.905.154.30−0.85−16.5▼ 319 · 1d28%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
KosovoEuropeHigh 0.754.703.86−0.85−18.0▼ 416 · 1d21%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
PhilippinesIndo-PacificHigh 0.858.837.99−0.84−9.6021 · 4d33%Artificial Intelligence 3.6 · Nascent
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.765.164.32−0.84−16.2▼ 319 · 2d21%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
MicronesiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.702.331.49−0.84−36.0▼ 513 · 1d9%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.806.615.78−0.83−12.6▼ 121 · 2d29%Artificial Intelligence 0.6 · Inception
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.888.517.70−0.82−9.6022 · 1d37%Artificial Intelligence 2.7 · Inception
NepalSouth AsiaHigh 0.694.964.15−0.81−16.3▼ 213 · 2d20%Artificial Intelligence 1 · Inception
MyanmarIndo-PacificHigh 0.643.893.08−0.81−20.9▼ 417 · 4d12%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
AlbaniaEuropeHigh 0.746.135.34−0.80−13.0▼ 318 · 4d26%Artificial Intelligence 0.4 · Inception
CubaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.675.955.15−0.80−13.5▼ 322 · 2d20%Artificial Intelligence 0.7 · Inception
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.755.604.80−0.80−14.3▼ 316 · 3d25%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.775.164.36−0.80−15.5▼ 119 · 1d23%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
PalestineGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.673.722.92−0.80−21.5▼ 516 · 2d17%Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 63 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Artificial Intelligence· High
  • Advanced Education· High
  • Digital & AI Competence· High
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling· High
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication· High
  • Political Institutions & Civic Participation· High
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance· High
  • Labour & Employment· High
  • Digital & Services Trade· High
Buffers
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Technology Adoption & Diffusion
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

services as a share of gdp (40%); regional exposure (30%); internet users as a share of population (30%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others. India and the Philippines are set by hand. Their exposure comes through exports of IT and business process services, which the services share of GDP and the share of internet users understate.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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