Load test · S04 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

BGeopolitical and securityScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.35
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−0.71
Georgia
Lose a domain band
117
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.15
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.19Canada: −0.28North America mean: −0.24Europe 42France: −0.29United Kingdom: −0.26Germany: −0.34Netherlands: −0.39Sweden: −0.37Switzerland: −0.43Norway: −0.50Finland: −0.49Denmark: −0.46Spain: −0.40Italy: −0.40Belgium: −0.48Austria: −0.48Poland: −0.52Ireland: −0.52Portugal: −0.46Czechia: −0.44Estonia: −0.57Luxembourg: −0.56Lithuania: −0.60Greece: −0.49Hungary: −0.49Slovenia: −0.49Romania: −0.46Slovakia: −0.47Latvia: −0.64Iceland: −0.60Croatia: −0.50Serbia: −0.52Bulgaria: −0.52Malta: −0.63Cyprus: −0.59Liechtenstein: −0.54North Macedonia: −0.57Montenegro: −0.60Albania: −0.59Monaco: −0.66Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.60Andorra: −0.58San Marino: −0.59Kosovo: −0.64Holy See: −0.47Europe mean: −0.50China 1China: −0.08China mean: −0.08ChinaIndo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.34South Korea: −0.35Singapore: −0.41Australia: −0.36Taiwan: −0.43New Zealand: −0.44Malaysia: −0.51Thailand: −0.48Indonesia: −0.47Vietnam: −0.46Philippines: −0.50Mongolia: −0.29Brunei: −0.66Fiji: −0.61Cambodia: −0.54North Korea: −0.12Myanmar: −0.56Papua New Guinea: −0.48Laos: −0.56Samoa: −0.51Tonga: −0.53Timor-Leste: −0.50Vanuatu: −0.51Solomon Islands: −0.51Palau: −0.52Marshall Islands: −0.57Micronesia: −0.47Kiribati: −0.56Tuvalu: −0.55Nauru: −0.60Indo-Pacific mean: −0.48North KoreaSouth Asia 8India: −0.25Pakistan: −0.26Sri Lanka: −0.33Bangladesh: −0.34Nepal: −0.36Maldives: −0.45Bhutan: −0.45Afghanistan: −0.31South Asia mean: −0.34Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.28Türkiye: −0.31United Arab Emirates: −0.35Saudi Arabia: −0.36Qatar: −0.43Egypt: −0.33Iran: −0.37Oman: −0.45Kuwait: −0.49Jordan: −0.45Bahrain: −0.48Iraq: −0.48Lebanon: −0.52Palestine: −0.51Syria: −0.40Yemen: −0.35Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.41Africa 53South Africa: −0.27Morocco: −0.29Mauritius: −0.30Tunisia: −0.31Nigeria: −0.23Kenya: −0.20Ghana: −0.30Algeria: −0.32Senegal: −0.28Botswana: −0.35Namibia: −0.31Rwanda: −0.19Tanzania: −0.22Ethiopia: −0.17Uganda: −0.18Côte d'Ivoire: −0.26Seychelles: −0.36Zambia: −0.24Cabo Verde: −0.34Angola: −0.30Cameroon: −0.28Zimbabwe: −0.24Mozambique: −0.22Benin: −0.26Togo: −0.25Gabon: −0.38Madagascar: −0.22Malawi: −0.18Eswatini: −0.26Sierra Leone: −0.23Mauritania: −0.28Burkina Faso: −0.20Lesotho: −0.25Mali: −0.25Gambia: −0.30Djibouti: −0.35Congo: −0.30Guinea: −0.23Niger: −0.19Libya: −0.42Liberia: −0.24DR Congo: −0.25São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.34Equatorial Guinea: −0.35Sudan: −0.24Burundi: −0.16Comoros: −0.24Chad: −0.18Guinea-Bissau: −0.26Eritrea: −0.23Central African Rep.: −0.20Somalia: −0.25South Sudan: −0.17Africa mean: −0.26Latin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.27Mexico: −0.28Chile: −0.32Argentina: −0.33Colombia: −0.30Peru: −0.32Uruguay: −0.37Costa Rica: −0.36Panama: −0.33Dominican Republic: −0.37Ecuador: −0.32Trinidad & Tobago: −0.34Jamaica: −0.34Cuba: −0.31Paraguay: −0.34El Salvador: −0.34Guatemala: −0.29Barbados: −0.30Bahamas: −0.40Bolivia: −0.34Honduras: −0.31Venezuela: −0.34Guyana: −0.31Nicaragua: −0.31Antigua & Barbuda: −0.30Grenada: −0.31Suriname: −0.36Belize: −0.32Dominica: −0.36Saint Lucia: −0.28Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.30Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.33Haiti: −0.29Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.32Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.14Ukraine: −0.53Kazakhstan: −0.69Georgia: −0.71Belarus: −0.15Azerbaijan: −0.71Armenia: −0.57Moldova: −0.55Uzbekistan: −0.59Kyrgyzstan: −0.59Tajikistan: −0.53Turkmenistan: −0.53Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.52RussiaKazakhstanGeorgiaAzerbaijan
  • Region mean
Lowest: Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan. Highest: Russia, North Korea, China.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.19France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.29United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.26Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.34Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.34South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.35China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.08Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.39Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.37Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.41Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.28Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.36Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.43Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.50Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.49Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.28Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.43Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.46Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.40Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.40Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.48New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.44Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.48India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.25Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.52Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.14Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.31Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.52United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.35Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.27Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.46Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.44Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.57Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.51Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.36Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.28Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.56South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.27Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.60Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.48Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.32Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.49Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.49Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.49Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.46Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.47Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.47Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.64Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.46Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.60Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.50Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.53Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.43Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.29Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.33Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.30Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.33Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.52Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.52Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.63Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.50Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.32Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.37Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.59Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.37Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.69Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.30Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.45Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.26Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.36Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.31Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.71Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.49Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.45Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.23Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.48Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.33Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.54Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.20Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.33Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.30Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.32Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.15Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.37Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.71Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.32Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.34Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.34Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.57North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.57Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.28Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.60Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.55Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.34Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.59Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.35Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.31Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.31Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.19Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.59Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.66Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.22Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.60Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.34Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.29Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.17El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.34Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.29Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.66Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.30Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.18Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.26Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.36Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.40Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.61Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.58Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.34Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.31San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.59Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.36Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.24Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.54Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.59Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.34Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.64Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.48Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.52Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.45Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.30Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.34Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.31Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.28Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.31Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.30Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.24North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.12Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.22Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.26Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.25Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.31Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.36Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.32Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.53Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.38Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.45Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.22Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.56Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.36Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.28Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.30Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.48Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.18Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.33Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.51Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.26Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.56Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.23Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.28Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.53Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.51Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.20Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.25Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.25Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.30Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.53Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.35Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.30Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.23Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.19Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.42Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.50Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.24Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.51Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.51DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.25São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.34Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.52Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.35Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.24Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.16Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.57Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.47Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.24Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.18Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.40Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.56Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.55Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.26Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.29Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.23Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.60Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.47Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.20Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.35Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.25Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.31South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.17ChinaRussiaKazakhstanGeorgiaAzerbaijanNorth Korea
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Governance & Integrity

Information & Influence

Strategic Infrastructure

National Security

Production & Innovation

Trade & Investment

Critical Technology

Human Capital

Financial Strength

−0.75

−0.72

−0.64

−0.58

−0.27

−0.27

−0.24

0.00

0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.917.556.84−0.71−9.4▼ 622 · 1d30%Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception
AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.916.796.09−0.71−10.4▼ 418 · 2d31%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.928.147.45−0.69−8.5▼ 326 · 3d32%Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 0.805.915.26−0.66−11.1▼ 713 · 1d17%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.775.604.93−0.66−11.9▼ 320 · 3d21%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception
LatviaEuropeHigh 0.949.899.26−0.64−6.4021 · 3d39%Maritime Power 3 · Nascent
KosovoEuropeHigh 0.744.704.06−0.64−13.7▼ 111417%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
MaltaEuropeHigh 0.788.898.26−0.63−7.1▼ 217 · 3d27%Maritime Power 1.8 · Inception
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.705.164.56−0.61−11.7▼ 51819%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
LithuaniaEuropeHigh 0.9310.7510.15−0.60−5.6▼ 21942%Maritime Power 3.1 · Nascent
IcelandEuropeHigh 0.799.639.03−0.60−6.2▼ 121 · 2d30%Maritime Power 2.1 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.736.355.75−0.60−9.5▼ 312 · 3d26%Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeHigh 0.695.805.20−0.60−10.3▼ 711 · 4d21%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.761.961.37−0.60−30.3▼ 39 · 1d7%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.738.517.92−0.59−7.0018 · 1d27%Maritime Power 2.1 · Inception
AlbaniaEuropeHigh 0.716.135.54−0.59−9.7▼ 59 · 5d24%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.705.925.33−0.59−9.9▼ 716 · 2d23%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 0.775.034.44−0.59−11.7▼ 212 · 1d11%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.684.774.18−0.59−12.4▼ 516 · 1d19%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
AndorraEuropeHigh 0.775.154.57−0.58−11.3▼ 31413%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
EstoniaEuropeHigh 0.9411.4910.91−0.57−5.0▼ 110 · 1d45%Maritime Power 4.5 · Nascent
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.716.656.08−0.57−8.5▼ 110 · 3d26%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.716.616.04−0.57−8.7▼ 114 · 2d25%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.702.481.91−0.57−22.8▼ 29 · 1d9%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
LuxembourgEuropeHigh 0.7910.7910.23−0.56−5.2▼ 213 · 2d34%Maritime Power 0 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 58 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies· Medium
  • Energy Infrastructure· High
  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure· High
  • Intelligence & Assessment· High
  • Maritime Power· High
  • Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations· High
  • Alliances & Security Cooperation· High
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication· High
  • Internal Security & Order· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management· High
Buffers
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Intelligence & Assessment
  • Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations
  • Energy Infrastructure
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication
  • Alliances & Security Cooperation

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

regional exposure (45%); land border with russia or belarus (20%); internet users as a share of population (20%); urban share of population (15%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others. A land border with Russia or Belarus raises exposure to hybrid coercion for most neighbours. These nations are set by hand because the border does not carry that meaning for them.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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