Capture test · S16 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A validated farming package raises water-efficient output

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

CEnergy, climate and resources↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
37
net position above +10
Mixed
109
between the two
Losers
51
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+32
South Africa

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−30−20−100+10+20+30Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +4.0Canada: −5.0North America mean: −0.5Europe 42France: +9.8United Kingdom: +2.9Germany: +14.5Netherlands: +8.8Sweden: +4.2Switzerland: +6.1Norway: −0.9Finland: +3.9Denmark: +12.5Spain: +8.5Italy: +6.8Belgium: +9.5Austria: +3.9Poland: +6.7Ireland: +0.7Portugal: +1.4Czechia: +5.9Estonia: +0.5Luxembourg: −1.9Lithuania: −0.6Greece: −1.2Hungary: +0.1Slovenia: −1.5Romania: −2.3Slovakia: −1.3Latvia: −3.6Iceland: −7.3Croatia: −5.3Serbia: −4.7Bulgaria: −2.3Malta: −0.5Cyprus: −3.4Liechtenstein: −9.5North Macedonia: −8.1Montenegro: −11.8Albania: −11.3Monaco: −15.2Bosnia & Herzegovina: −12.2Andorra: −15.1San Marino: −15.4Kosovo: −14.5Holy See: −23.2Europe mean: −1.6China 1China: +28.0China mean: +28.0Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +24.3South Korea: +26.0Singapore: +22.2Australia: +4.3Taiwan: +27.1New Zealand: +8.5Malaysia: +9.8Thailand: −0.1Indonesia: +9.8Vietnam: −2.8Philippines: +6.6Mongolia: −6.0Brunei: −9.6Fiji: −7.7Cambodia: −6.8North Korea: −9.6Myanmar: −8.9Papua New Guinea: −8.0Laos: −8.1Samoa: −8.3Tonga: −10.1Timor-Leste: −11.1Vanuatu: −11.9Solomon Islands: −12.6Palau: −13.9Marshall Islands: −14.3Micronesia: −12.1Kiribati: −12.5Tuvalu: −15.1Nauru: −15.0Indo-Pacific mean: −2.2South Asia 8India: +29.3Pakistan: +24.0Sri Lanka: +14.3Bangladesh: +14.6Nepal: +6.7Maldives: +6.3Bhutan: +1.4Afghanistan: −0.1South Asia mean: +12.1IndiaGulf and Middle East 16Israel: +28.3Türkiye: +21.1United Arab Emirates: +20.5Saudi Arabia: +19.7Qatar: +12.7Egypt: +28.5Iran: +25.3Oman: +11.4Kuwait: +10.0Jordan: +15.0Bahrain: +8.6Iraq: +5.1Lebanon: +7.8Palestine: +7.8Syria: +1.9Yemen: +0.2Gulf and Middle East mean: +14.0EgyptAfrica 53South Africa: +31.9Morocco: +24.3Mauritius: +15.2Tunisia: +21.2Nigeria: +23.1Kenya: +26.9Ghana: +16.1Algeria: +23.7Senegal: +22.3Botswana: +8.2Namibia: +9.0Rwanda: +19.4Tanzania: +15.2Ethiopia: +15.8Uganda: +16.0Côte d'Ivoire: +10.6Seychelles: +5.6Zambia: +8.6Cabo Verde: +6.1Angola: +7.8Cameroon: +9.9Zimbabwe: +11.4Mozambique: +8.4Benin: +9.0Togo: +9.2Gabon: +2.3Madagascar: +10.1Malawi: +8.1Eswatini: +4.2Sierra Leone: +6.7Mauritania: +7.6Burkina Faso: +6.0Lesotho: +4.6Mali: +4.4Gambia: +5.6Djibouti: +4.3Congo: +3.6Guinea: +5.0Niger: +6.6Libya: +3.9Liberia: +3.2DR Congo: +2.8São Tomé & Príncipe: +2.3Equatorial Guinea: +1.9Sudan: +6.2Burundi: +0.8Comoros: +2.0Chad: −0.3Guinea-Bissau: +0.5Eritrea: +1.4Central African Rep.: −1.5Somalia: −0.3South Sudan: −2.0Africa mean: +9.0South AfricaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −5.1Mexico: +9.6Chile: +0.5Argentina: −14.9Colombia: −2.4Peru: −2.3Uruguay: −19.6Costa Rica: −5.3Panama: −8.2Dominican Republic: −7.3Ecuador: −8.2Trinidad & Tobago: −9.2Jamaica: −8.8Cuba: −5.5Paraguay: −37.4El Salvador: −10.2Guatemala: −10.4Barbados: −11.9Bahamas: −16.2Bolivia: −15.1Honduras: −12.6Venezuela: −10.8Guyana: −19.0Nicaragua: −15.2Antigua & Barbuda: −16.9Grenada: −15.5Suriname: −19.0Belize: −18.7Dominica: −18.4Saint Lucia: −16.7Saint Kitts & Nevis: −17.0Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −15.2Haiti: −20.9Latin America and Caribbean mean: −12.2ParaguayRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −17.7Ukraine: −32.1Kazakhstan: −19.3Georgia: −15.5Belarus: −17.0Azerbaijan: −19.6Armenia: −17.7Moldova: −17.3Uzbekistan: −16.0Kyrgyzstan: −22.8Tajikistan: −23.0Turkmenistan: −27.2Russia and Eurasia mean: −20.4UkraineTurkmenistan
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: Paraguay, Ukraine, Turkmenistan. Highest: Egypt, India, South Africa.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−200+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 77.1, net position +4.00France (Europe): readiness 80.1, net position +9.80United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 76.2, net position +2.90Germany (Europe): readiness 81.6, net position +14.50Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.9, net position +24.30South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.2, net position +26.00China (China): readiness 71.8, net position +28.00Netherlands (Europe): readiness 83.6, net position +8.80Sweden (Europe): readiness 71.1, net position +4.20Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 68.2, net position +22.20Canada (North America): readiness 78, net position −5.00Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.3, net position +4.30Switzerland (Europe): readiness 68.3, net position +6.10Norway (Europe): readiness 68.7, net position −0.90Finland (Europe): readiness 71.5, net position +3.90Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 67.2, net position +28.30Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 70.6, net position +27.10Denmark (Europe): readiness 77.5, net position +12.50Spain (Europe): readiness 70.6, net position +8.50Italy (Europe): readiness 66.3, net position +6.80Belgium (Europe): readiness 70.4, net position +9.50New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 61.2, net position +8.50Austria (Europe): readiness 64.8, net position +3.90India (South Asia): readiness 52.7, net position +29.30Poland (Europe): readiness 60.3, net position +6.70Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 57.6, net position −17.70Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 57.7, net position +21.10Ireland (Europe): readiness 61.6, net position +0.70United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 52.2, net position +20.50Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58.5, net position −5.10Portugal (Europe): readiness 56.2, net position +1.40Czechia (Europe): readiness 56, net position +5.90Estonia (Europe): readiness 50.1, net position +0.50Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 55, net position +9.80Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 50.6, net position +19.70Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 53.6, net position +9.60Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 43.3, net position −1.90South Africa (Africa): readiness 56, net position +31.90Lithuania (Europe): readiness 49.9, net position −0.60Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.1, net position −0.10Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.3, net position +0.50Greece (Europe): readiness 46.7, net position −1.20Hungary (Europe): readiness 54.5, net position +0.10Slovenia (Europe): readiness 50.7, net position −1.50Romania (Europe): readiness 48.2, net position −2.30Slovakia (Europe): readiness 44.4, net position −1.30Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.4, net position +9.80Latvia (Europe): readiness 42.2, net position −3.60Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.3, net position −2.80Iceland (Europe): readiness 44.5, net position −7.30Croatia (Europe): readiness 40.7, net position −5.30Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41, net position −32.10Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 36.9, net position +12.70Morocco (Africa): readiness 42, net position +24.30Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.1, net position −14.90Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.6, net position −2.40Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 44.2, net position +28.50Serbia (Europe): readiness 41.9, net position −4.70Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 41.2, net position −2.30Malta (Europe): readiness 37.9, net position −0.50Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 38.5, net position +6.60Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38.3, net position −2.30Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38, net position −19.60Cyprus (Europe): readiness 34.3, net position −3.40Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.3, net position +25.30Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 37.5, net position −19.30Mauritius (Africa): readiness 34.4, net position +15.20Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31, net position +11.40Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 36.2, net position +24.00Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.5, net position −5.30Tunisia (Africa): readiness 38.3, net position +21.20Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.6, net position −15.50Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29, net position +10.00Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31.7, net position +15.00Nigeria (Africa): readiness 33.1, net position +23.10Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 26.6, net position +8.60Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 31.7, net position +14.30Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 26.5, net position −9.50Kenya (Africa): readiness 32.8, net position +26.90Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.4, net position −8.20Ghana (Africa): readiness 31.3, net position +16.10Algeria (Africa): readiness 31.2, net position +23.70Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.1, net position −17.00Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.7, net position −7.30Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25, net position −19.60Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.9, net position −8.20Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 33.5, net position +14.60Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.4, net position −9.20Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25.1, net position −17.70North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 25.7, net position −8.10Senegal (Africa): readiness 29.9, net position +22.30Montenegro (Europe): readiness 24.2, net position −11.80Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.2, net position −17.30Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24, net position −8.80Albania (Europe): readiness 20.8, net position −11.30Botswana (Africa): readiness 22.4, net position +8.20Namibia (Africa): readiness 24, net position +9.00Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.9, net position −5.50Rwanda (Africa): readiness 27.5, net position +19.40Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.9, net position −16.00Monaco (Europe): readiness 21.5, net position −15.20Tanzania (Africa): readiness 25.5, net position +15.20Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 21.9, net position −12.20Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22, net position −37.40Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.8, net position −6.00Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 24.2, net position +15.80El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.7, net position −10.20Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.4, net position −10.40Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.7, net position −9.60Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.3, net position −11.90Uganda (Africa): readiness 25.9, net position +16.00Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 20.7, net position +10.60Seychelles (Africa): readiness 18.9, net position +5.60Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.3, net position −16.20Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.9, net position −7.70Andorra (Europe): readiness 17.1, net position −15.10Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.7, net position −15.10Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.9, net position −12.60San Marino (Europe): readiness 15.7, net position −15.40Nepal (South Asia): readiness 18.8, net position +6.70Zambia (Africa): readiness 20.3, net position +8.60Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.7, net position −6.80Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18.1, net position −22.80Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 15.4, net position +6.10Kosovo (Europe): readiness 17.2, net position −14.50Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 18.8, net position +5.10Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 22.3, net position +7.80Maldives (South Asia): readiness 17.4, net position +6.30Angola (Africa): readiness 15.1, net position +7.80Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.8, net position −10.80Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.9, net position −19.00Cameroon (Africa): readiness 18.2, net position +9.90Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.7, net position −15.20Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14, net position −16.90Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 19.6, net position +11.40North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.2, net position −9.60Mozambique (Africa): readiness 17.5, net position +8.40Benin (Africa): readiness 14.4, net position +9.00Togo (Africa): readiness 14.2, net position +9.20Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.3, net position −15.50Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.3, net position −19.00Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.1, net position −18.70Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.2, net position −23.00Gabon (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position +2.30Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 12.3, net position +1.40Madagascar (Africa): readiness 16.5, net position +10.10Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.2, net position −8.90Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.3, net position −18.40Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.9, net position −16.70Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.8, net position −17.00Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.5, net position −8.00Malawi (Africa): readiness 17.1, net position +8.10Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.4, net position −15.20Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 14.9, net position +7.80Eswatini (Africa): readiness 14.2, net position +4.20Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.1, net position −8.10Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 13.1, net position +6.70Mauritania (Africa): readiness 13.5, net position +7.60Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.4, net position −27.20Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11, net position −8.30Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position +6.00Lesotho (Africa): readiness 12.6, net position +4.60Mali (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position +4.40Gambia (Africa): readiness 13.7, net position +5.60Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.4, net position −10.10Djibouti (Africa): readiness 9.8, net position +4.30Congo (Africa): readiness 11.1, net position +3.60Guinea (Africa): readiness 12.1, net position +5.00Niger (Africa): readiness 11.5, net position +6.60Libya (Africa): readiness 12.9, net position +3.90Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.6, net position −11.10Liberia (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position +3.20Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9, net position −11.90Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.2, net position −12.60DR Congo (Africa): readiness 11.8, net position +2.80São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 9.2, net position +2.30Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.5, net position −13.90Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 8.8, net position +1.90Sudan (Africa): readiness 11.1, net position +6.20Burundi (Africa): readiness 7.1, net position +0.80Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.3, net position −14.30Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.9, net position −12.10Comoros (Africa): readiness 7, net position +2.00Chad (Africa): readiness 6.2, net position −0.30Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.9, net position +1.90Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.1, net position −12.50Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.4, net position −15.10Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 6.7, net position +0.50Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.3, net position −20.90Eritrea (Africa): readiness 7.3, net position +1.40Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.1, net position −15.00Holy See (Europe): readiness 4.3, net position −23.20Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5.1, net position −1.50Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5.3, net position +0.20Somalia (Africa): readiness 4.5, net position −0.30Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 4.9, net position −0.10South Sudan (Africa): readiness 3.7, net position −2.00IndiaSouth AfricaUkraineEgyptParaguayTurkmenistan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: farm income and cropland values in grain-exporting nations, highest where production costs are high.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1South AfricaAfricaGainer+31.933.92.05659Technology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5 · Transitional
2IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+29.331.11.85364Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional
3EgyptGulf and Middle EastGainer+28.531.22.74446Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational
4IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+28.329.81.46771Transport Infrastructure 12.4 · Established
5ChinaChinaGainer+28.029.01.07280Technical & Vocational Skills 13 · Established
6TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+27.132.04.97176Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established
7KenyaAfricaGainer+26.929.92.93341Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
8South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+26.029.23.28084Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
9IranGulf and Middle EastGainer+25.328.53.23935Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational
11MoroccoAfricaGainer+24.326.52.24257Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
10JapanIndo-PacificGainer+24.327.02.78187Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
12PakistanSouth AsiaGainer+24.027.13.13638Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 · Foundational
13AlgeriaAfricaGainer+23.727.03.33134Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
14NigeriaAfricaGainer+23.126.23.13338Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
15SenegalAfricaGainer+22.325.53.23037Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
16SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+22.225.33.06885Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
17TunisiaAfricaGainer+21.223.92.73845Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
18TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+21.123.01.85863Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
19United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+20.522.21.85265Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
20Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastGainer+19.721.82.15158Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
21RwandaAfricaGainer+19.422.63.22836Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
22GhanaAfricaGainer+16.119.13.03140Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
23UgandaAfricaGainer+16.019.33.42633Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent
24EthiopiaAfricaGainer+15.819.13.32433Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
26TanzaniaAfricaGainer+15.218.43.32635Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Agriculture & Food Infrastructure
  • Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Technology Adoption & Diffusion
  • Transport Infrastructure
  • Technical & Vocational Skills

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Structural Transformation & Complexity
  • Export Capability & Sophistication
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Trade Policy & Market Access
Gain exposure

regional exposure (30%); staple foods among the top five imports (25%); low real gdp per head (ranked) (25%); little renewable water per head (ranked) (20%).

Loss exposure

Farm income and cropland values in grain-exporting nations, highest where production costs are high: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

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