Capture test · S11 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

AEconomic and trade↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
15
net position above +10
Mixed
176
between the two
Losers
6
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+18
Ghana

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−15−10−50+5+10+15Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +0.2Canada: +1.8North America mean: +1.0Europe 42France: +3.3United Kingdom: +5.5Germany: +1.3Netherlands: −1.0Sweden: −0.7Switzerland: −2.8Norway: −3.0Finland: +1.3Denmark: −3.9Spain: +1.6Italy: −0.9Belgium: −0.8Austria: −1.9Poland: −3.4Ireland: −5.3Portugal: +0.1Czechia: −6.0Estonia: −1.9Luxembourg: −5.3Lithuania: −3.2Greece: +0.8Hungary: −2.6Slovenia: −2.4Romania: −5.0Slovakia: −0.6Latvia: −3.4Iceland: −6.7Croatia: −2.4Serbia: −5.0Bulgaria: −8.2Malta: −6.1Cyprus: −5.5Liechtenstein: −11.3North Macedonia: −7.6Montenegro: −6.9Albania: −6.9Monaco: −12.3Bosnia & Herzegovina: −10.2Andorra: −12.9San Marino: −13.0Kosovo: −9.2Holy See: −15.6Europe mean: −4.3AndorraSan MarinoHoly SeeChina 1China: −9.6China mean: −9.6Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +2.0South Korea: +2.7Singapore: −1.0Australia: +3.7Taiwan: +3.3New Zealand: +3.2Malaysia: +4.7Thailand: +4.5Indonesia: +5.2Vietnam: +7.9Philippines: +3.7Mongolia: +2.5Brunei: −6.1Fiji: +0.5Cambodia: −0.8North Korea: −5.1Myanmar: −3.2Papua New Guinea: −0.5Laos: −0.3Samoa: −2.2Tonga: −4.0Timor-Leste: −4.5Vanuatu: −2.1Solomon Islands: −4.9Palau: −2.0Marshall Islands: −4.1Micronesia: −6.0Kiribati: −5.1Tuvalu: −3.7Nauru: −4.0Indo-Pacific mean: −0.5South Asia 8India: +7.8Pakistan: +12.7Sri Lanka: +10.5Bangladesh: +6.6Nepal: +2.9Maldives: +1.5Bhutan: +2.7Afghanistan: −6.9South Asia mean: +4.7Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −1.3Türkiye: −0.6United Arab Emirates: −7.8Saudi Arabia: −8.8Qatar: −5.0Egypt: +0.9Iran: −3.6Oman: −2.9Kuwait: −5.8Jordan: +4.4Bahrain: −4.9Iraq: −8.1Lebanon: −6.5Palestine: −2.8Syria: −9.2Yemen: −9.4Gulf and Middle East mean: −4.5Africa 53South Africa: +15.5Morocco: +12.8Mauritius: +2.7Tunisia: +9.2Nigeria: +4.2Kenya: +12.4Ghana: +17.7Algeria: −0.5Senegal: +13.0Botswana: +1.1Namibia: +5.7Rwanda: +8.9Tanzania: +10.7Ethiopia: +10.4Uganda: +13.4Côte d'Ivoire: +9.0Seychelles: +1.0Zambia: +12.5Cabo Verde: +6.1Angola: +4.0Cameroon: +2.0Zimbabwe: +10.1Mozambique: +10.4Benin: +6.0Togo: +10.2Gabon: +0.2Madagascar: +3.3Malawi: +10.1Eswatini: +2.1Sierra Leone: +5.9Mauritania: +4.0Burkina Faso: +6.7Lesotho: +1.0Mali: +2.4Gambia: +4.5Djibouti: +0.7Congo: +3.9Guinea: +2.4Niger: +3.4Libya: −6.1Liberia: +1.8DR Congo: +0.8São Tomé & Príncipe: +4.0Equatorial Guinea: −4.6Sudan: +1.0Burundi: +3.6Comoros: −3.7Chad: −1.1Guinea-Bissau: −0.1Eritrea: −3.9Central African Rep.: −3.3Somalia: −2.8South Sudan: −2.7Africa mean: +4.6South AfricaGhanaUgandaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +9.5Mexico: +8.2Chile: +4.5Argentina: +4.3Colombia: +6.5Peru: +3.1Uruguay: +2.2Costa Rica: +3.1Panama: +1.5Dominican Republic: +1.4Ecuador: +7.7Trinidad & Tobago: −1.0Jamaica: +8.4Cuba: −2.5Paraguay: 0.0El Salvador: +8.8Guatemala: −0.3Barbados: +1.8Bahamas: −1.1Bolivia: +7.8Honduras: +3.5Venezuela: −2.3Guyana: −5.9Nicaragua: −1.2Antigua & Barbuda: −0.8Grenada: +0.3Suriname: −1.3Belize: +3.5Dominica: 0.0Saint Lucia: −1.2Saint Kitts & Nevis: −3.0Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.7Haiti: −4.6Latin America and Caribbean mean: +1.8Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −2.9Ukraine: +4.5Kazakhstan: −2.3Georgia: +2.3Belarus: −2.3Azerbaijan: −2.2Armenia: +3.2Moldova: −1.1Uzbekistan: −3.3Kyrgyzstan: +0.9Tajikistan: −0.9Turkmenistan: −6.2Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.9
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: Holy See, San Marino, Andorra. Highest: Uganda, South Africa, Ghana.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−100+10Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 77.6, net position +0.20France (Europe): readiness 78.8, net position +3.30United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 79.9, net position +5.50Germany (Europe): readiness 78.3, net position +1.30Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.6, net position +2.00South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 78.5, net position +2.70China (China): readiness 49.9, net position −9.60Netherlands (Europe): readiness 75.4, net position −1.00Sweden (Europe): readiness 80.9, net position −0.70Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 63.6, net position −1.00Canada (North America): readiness 79.9, net position +1.80Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 73.5, net position +3.70Switzerland (Europe): readiness 74.8, net position −2.80Norway (Europe): readiness 71, net position −3.00Finland (Europe): readiness 81, net position +1.30Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 61.6, net position −1.30Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 72.1, net position +3.30Denmark (Europe): readiness 66.6, net position −3.90Spain (Europe): readiness 70.3, net position +1.60Italy (Europe): readiness 65, net position −0.90Belgium (Europe): readiness 71.1, net position −0.80New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 65.8, net position +3.20Austria (Europe): readiness 66.7, net position −1.90India (South Asia): readiness 53, net position +7.80Poland (Europe): readiness 61.6, net position −3.40Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 39.7, net position −2.90Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 49, net position −0.60Ireland (Europe): readiness 60.5, net position −5.30United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.2, net position −7.80Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 60.3, net position +9.50Portugal (Europe): readiness 62, net position +0.10Czechia (Europe): readiness 63.5, net position −6.00Estonia (Europe): readiness 58.2, net position −1.90Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 53.7, net position +4.70Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 42.4, net position −8.80Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 52.5, net position +8.20Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 55.5, net position −5.30South Africa (Africa): readiness 55.2, net position +15.50Lithuania (Europe): readiness 58.1, net position −3.20Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 54.5, net position +4.50Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 60.8, net position +4.50Greece (Europe): readiness 54.5, net position +0.80Hungary (Europe): readiness 53.2, net position −2.60Slovenia (Europe): readiness 60.9, net position −2.40Romania (Europe): readiness 55.6, net position −5.00Slovakia (Europe): readiness 58.5, net position −0.60Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 50.8, net position +5.20Latvia (Europe): readiness 54.3, net position −3.40Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 40, net position +7.90Iceland (Europe): readiness 56.9, net position −6.70Croatia (Europe): readiness 53.7, net position −2.40Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 45.4, net position +4.50Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.4, net position −5.00Morocco (Africa): readiness 43.5, net position +12.80Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 47.9, net position +4.30Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 51.6, net position +6.50Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 34.5, net position +0.90Serbia (Europe): readiness 49.6, net position −5.00Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 51.2, net position −8.20Malta (Europe): readiness 45.6, net position −6.10Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.9, net position +3.70Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 49.7, net position +3.10Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 53.7, net position +2.20Cyprus (Europe): readiness 44.2, net position −5.50Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31.6, net position −3.60Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 43.2, net position −2.30Mauritius (Africa): readiness 46.6, net position +2.70Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 36.6, net position −2.90Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 34.8, net position +12.70Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.8, net position +3.10Tunisia (Africa): readiness 40.9, net position +9.20Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 43.6, net position +2.30Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 38.3, net position −5.80Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 42.1, net position +4.40Nigeria (Africa): readiness 35.1, net position +4.20Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 34.7, net position −4.90Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 41.7, net position +10.50Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 40.3, net position −11.30Kenya (Africa): readiness 40, net position +12.40Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.2, net position +1.50Ghana (Africa): readiness 40.5, net position +17.70Algeria (Africa): readiness 34.4, net position −0.50Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.4, net position −2.30Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.6, net position +1.40Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31.7, net position −2.20Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.4, net position +7.70Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 34.5, net position +6.60Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.5, net position −1.00Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 40.9, net position +3.20North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 41.4, net position −7.60Senegal (Africa): readiness 35.8, net position +13.00Montenegro (Europe): readiness 39.8, net position −6.90Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 37.1, net position −1.10Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.2, net position +8.40Albania (Europe): readiness 37, net position −6.90Botswana (Africa): readiness 33.5, net position +1.10Namibia (Africa): readiness 36.5, net position +5.70Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.8, net position −2.50Rwanda (Africa): readiness 32.4, net position +8.90Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31.7, net position −3.30Monaco (Europe): readiness 34.3, net position −12.30Tanzania (Africa): readiness 33.8, net position +10.70Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 37.6, net position −10.20Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 36.1, net position 0.00Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 35.2, net position +2.50Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 30.2, net position +10.40El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33, net position +8.80Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.1, net position −0.30Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 29.9, net position −6.10Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35, net position +1.80Uganda (Africa): readiness 31.9, net position +13.40Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 32.5, net position +9.00Seychelles (Africa): readiness 33.1, net position +1.00Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.3, net position −1.10Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 31.6, net position +0.50Andorra (Europe): readiness 35, net position −12.90Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.7, net position +7.80Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.1, net position +3.50San Marino (Europe): readiness 31.2, net position −13.00Nepal (South Asia): readiness 32.2, net position +2.90Zambia (Africa): readiness 31.4, net position +12.50Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 26.3, net position −0.80Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31, net position +0.90Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 30.7, net position +6.10Kosovo (Europe): readiness 30, net position −9.20Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 25.9, net position −8.10Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 21.1, net position −6.50Maldives (South Asia): readiness 28.6, net position +1.50Angola (Africa): readiness 27.6, net position +4.00Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.7, net position −2.30Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.6, net position −5.90Cameroon (Africa): readiness 24.7, net position +2.00Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.1, net position −1.20Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.8, net position −0.80Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 24.6, net position +10.10North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.2, net position −5.10Mozambique (Africa): readiness 25.6, net position +10.40Benin (Africa): readiness 23.8, net position +6.00Togo (Africa): readiness 23.2, net position +10.20Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.8, net position +0.30Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.1, net position −1.30Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.4, net position +3.50Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 22.7, net position −0.90Gabon (Africa): readiness 23.4, net position +0.20Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 31.4, net position +2.70Madagascar (Africa): readiness 22.2, net position +3.30Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.4, net position −3.20Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.5, net position 0.00Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.8, net position −1.20Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.9, net position −3.00Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.7, net position −0.50Malawi (Africa): readiness 24.1, net position +10.10Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.2, net position −0.70Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 21, net position −2.80Eswatini (Africa): readiness 24.1, net position +2.10Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.3, net position −0.30Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 21.6, net position +5.90Mauritania (Africa): readiness 21.4, net position +4.00Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.1, net position −6.20Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 24.3, net position −2.20Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 20.5, net position +6.70Lesotho (Africa): readiness 23, net position +1.00Mali (Africa): readiness 20.3, net position +2.40Gambia (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position +4.50Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.4, net position −4.00Djibouti (Africa): readiness 17.4, net position +0.70Congo (Africa): readiness 18.2, net position +3.90Guinea (Africa): readiness 19.7, net position +2.40Niger (Africa): readiness 18.8, net position +3.40Libya (Africa): readiness 14.6, net position −6.10Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.3, net position −4.50Liberia (Africa): readiness 18.6, net position +1.80Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.7, net position −2.10Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.7, net position −4.90DR Congo (Africa): readiness 15.3, net position +0.80São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 19.6, net position +4.00Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.9, net position −2.00Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 12.3, net position −4.60Sudan (Africa): readiness 11.3, net position +1.00Burundi (Africa): readiness 15.6, net position +3.60Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.9, net position −4.10Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.5, net position −6.00Comoros (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position −3.70Chad (Africa): readiness 11.9, net position −1.10Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.5, net position −9.20Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.7, net position −5.10Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.6, net position −3.70Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 13, net position −0.10Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.7, net position −4.60Eritrea (Africa): readiness 6.8, net position −3.90Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.4, net position −4.00Holy See (Europe): readiness 6.9, net position −15.60Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position −3.30Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 7.4, net position −9.40Somalia (Africa): readiness 7.4, net position −2.80Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 9.6, net position −6.90South Sudan (Africa): readiness 7.2, net position −2.70South AfricaGhanaUgandaAndorraSan MarinoHoly See
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: losses taken as a creditor; higher financing costs for borrowers left outside the framework.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1GhanaAfricaGainer+17.723.65.94141Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
2South AfricaAfricaGainer+15.519.13.65564Foundational Education 10.3 · Transitional
3UgandaAfricaGainer+13.419.96.63235Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
4SenegalAfricaGainer+13.019.16.03640Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
5MoroccoAfricaGainer+12.817.44.74453Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
6PakistanSouth AsiaGainer+12.719.06.23538Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational
7ZambiaAfricaGainer+12.519.67.13129Energy Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
8KenyaAfricaGainer+12.418.15.74043Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
9TanzaniaAfricaGainer+10.717.16.43436Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
10Sri LankaSouth AsiaGainer+10.516.86.34237Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
12MozambiqueAfricaGainer+10.418.17.72623Financial System Depth & Access 4.8 · Nascent
11EthiopiaAfricaGainer+10.417.26.83032Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
13TogoAfricaGainer+10.217.77.42326Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
15MalawiAfricaGainer+10.118.07.92422Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
14ZimbabweAfricaGainer+10.118.18.02520Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.3 · Nascent
16BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+9.513.03.56065Foundational Education 11.3 · Transitional
17TunisiaAfricaMixed+9.215.56.24138Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
18Côte d'IvoireAfricaMixed+9.015.56.53335Energy Infrastructure 6 · Foundational
19RwandaAfricaMixed+8.915.46.53235Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
20El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.815.76.93331Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
21JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.414.56.13739Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
22MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.211.93.85363Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional
23VietnamIndo-PacificMixed+7.913.05.14049Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
25BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.814.97.13429Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
24IndiaSouth AsiaMixed+7.814.76.95365Foundational Education 9.5 · Transitional

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption
  • Transparency, Oversight & Accountability
  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Health System Capability
  • Foundational Education
  • Energy Infrastructure

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Financial Stability & Crisis Management
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
Gain exposure

few months of imports covered by reserves (ranked) (40%); regional exposure (30%); public debt relative to gdp (ranked) (30%).

Loss exposure

Losses taken as a creditor; higher financing costs for borrowers left outside the framework: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

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