Algeria
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 16.2
- rank 124 of 197 · 3 years: 16.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.4
- rank 144 of 197 · 3 years: −12.5
- Shock absorbed
- 28%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.20
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; youth unemployment rate; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Algeria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.84 | −0.90 | −1.31 | −0.57 | ▼ 8 | 27 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.82 | −0.80 | −1.06 | −0.46 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.8 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.83 | −0.77 | −1.15 | −0.50 | ▼ 3 | 23 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.1 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.70 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.59 | −0.67 | −0.88 | −0.39 | 0 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 1.3 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.62 | −0.63 | −0.79 | −0.35 | 0 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.37 | −0.39 | −0.55 | −0.24 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.37 | −0.34 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.5 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.40 | −0.32 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.24 | −0.22 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 9 | 5 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6.5 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.47 | −1.12 | −0.39 | −1.05 | −1.01 | −1.08 | −1.15 | −0.86 | −0.99 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.47 | −0.51 | −0.93 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −1.51 | −1.24 | −0.47 | −0.53 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.16 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.41 | −1.03 | −1.10 | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.74 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.90 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| AI labour shock | −0.74 | −0.34 | · | −0.90 | −0.79 | −0.93 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.82 | −0.45 | −0.82 | · | −1.00 | −0.94 | −0.87 | −0.37 | −0.43 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.50 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.62 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.20 | −0.22 | · | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.45 | −0.74 | −0.52 | −0.46 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.24 | −0.51 | −0.51 | · | −0.57 | −0.59 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.29 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Algeria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +23.7 | 27.0 | 3.3 | 31 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +8.0 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 31 | 98 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 34 | 101 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 19.3 | 20.3 | 32 | 82 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.9 | 17.4 | 23.3 | 23 | 104 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −6.7 | 4.0 | 10.7 | 18 | 75 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −18.3 | 17.7 | 36.0 | 31 | 153 | Digital & Services Trade 5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −21.9 | 17.2 | 39.1 | 38 | 173 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.3 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −26.6 | 6.1 | 32.7 | 13 | 140 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −47.1 | 12.0 | 59.1 | 29 | 177 | Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Algeria, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 2.4% Possible · rank 104 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Health system failure | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 2.2% Possible · rank 4 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 |
| Food and water failure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.9% Possible · rank 17 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 114 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 99 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×2.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 112 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 56 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×1.9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 62 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 29 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 109 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 66 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 7 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 72 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 91 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 60 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 89 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 91 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 21 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 76 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Defence readiness failure | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Broad fall in national security | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 85 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 84 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 84 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | — Remote · rank 115 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×4.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secure food and water supply | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 41 | Market access opening Severe + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 |
| Capable digital government | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.1 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |