Andorra
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 30.2
- rank 72 of 197 · 3 years: 29.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −9.3
- rank 119 of 197 · 3 years: −9.0
- Shock absorbed
- 23%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 5of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Andorra’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.96 | −0.95 | −1.12 | −0.50 | ▼ 2 | 25 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.91 | −0.89 | −1.20 | −0.54 | ▼ 3 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.90 | −0.85 | −1.17 | −0.53 | ▼ 3 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.93 | −0.73 | −0.86 | −0.41 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.67 | −0.70 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.62 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.4 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.77 | −0.58 | −0.65 | −0.31 | ▼ 3 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.49 | −0.36 | −0.55 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 10 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.35 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 4 | 10 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.36 | −0.29 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 7 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 3.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.17 | −1.23 | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −1.50 | −1.40 | −1.20 | −1.55 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.17 | −1.33 | −1.16 | −1.25 | −1.16 | −1.14 | −1.14 |
| AI labour shock | −0.20 | −0.41 | · | −1.28 | −1.12 | −1.32 | −1.12 | −1.10 | −1.10 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.20 | −0.59 | −0.28 | · | −1.47 | −1.42 | −1.33 | −0.57 | −0.65 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.20 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.42 | −0.98 | −0.94 | −0.98 | −0.96 | −1.32 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.13 | −0.38 | · | −0.43 | −0.39 | −0.88 | −1.43 | −1.00 | −0.89 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.18 | −1.04 | −0.28 | · | −1.34 | −1.39 | · | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.77 | −0.63 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.09 | −0.43 | −0.07 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.37 | −0.37 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Andorra is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +14.3 | 16.9 | 2.6 | 19 | 73 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.1 | 9.6 | 0.5 | 15 | 90 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 19 | 93 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −2.2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 24 | 86 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −10.3 | 11.9 | 22.1 | 25 | 120 | Transport Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Loser | −12.9 | 0.6 | 13.6 | 35 | 195 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.1 | 3.1 | 18.2 | 17 | 166 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −17.2 | 5.7 | 22.8 | 6 | 85 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.1 | 5.6 | 23.7 | 9 | 154 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −18.6 | 17.9 | 36.5 | 23 | 169 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Andorra, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 5.8% Likely · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 4.9% Possible · rank 7 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 3.5% Possible · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extreme | ×2.0 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 3.2% Possible · rank 11 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 2.8% Possible · rank 8 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 2.0% Possible · rank 8 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Health system failure | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 4 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 20 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Food and water failure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 91 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 66 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 165 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 141 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×15 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×86 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×36 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |