Antigua & Barbuda
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 31.6
- rank 66 of 197 · 3 years: 31.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −14.5
- rank 158 of 197 · 3 years: −14.5
- Shock absorbed
- 20%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Antigua & Barbuda’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.82 | −0.89 | −1.04 | −0.48 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.84 | −0.77 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.74 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.65 | −0.73 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.68 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.6 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.69 | −0.64 | −0.72 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.57 | −0.57 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.49 | −0.55 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.46 | −0.53 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▲ 3 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.33 | −0.30 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.19 | −1.18 | −0.71 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.29 | −1.21 | −1.03 | −1.33 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.18 | −0.53 | · | −0.54 | −0.48 | −1.09 | −1.77 | −1.24 | −1.10 |
| AI labour shock | −0.23 | −0.41 | · | −1.10 | −0.96 | −1.13 | −0.96 | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.23 | −0.43 | −0.27 | −1.04 | −0.91 | −0.98 | −0.91 | −0.89 | −0.89 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.17 | −0.47 | −0.62 | −0.42 | −0.99 | −1.38 | −1.13 | −0.42 | −0.49 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.64 | · | −1.19 | −1.12 | −1.04 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.86 | −0.22 | −0.68 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.21 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.31 | −0.73 | −0.71 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.99 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.69 | −0.19 | −0.65 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.71 | −0.53 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.52 | −0.43 | · | −0.57 | −0.59 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Antigua & Barbuda is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 15 | 128 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.8 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 28 | 109 | Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −8.3 | 9.4 | 17.7 | 18 | 118 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −8.8 | 14.7 | 23.5 | 23 | 106 | Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −9.5 | 9.0 | 18.5 | 12 | 151 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 5.0 | 17.4 | 18 | 167 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.5 | 4.4 | 18.9 | 10 | 125 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −16.9 | 5.9 | 22.8 | 14 | 178 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −22.1 | 10.5 | 32.6 | 16 | 181 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.9 | 2.4 | 25.4 | 5 | 118 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Antigua & Barbuda, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 4.0% Possible · rank 17 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 3.3% Possible · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 2.2% Possible · rank 22 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 58 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Health system failure | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 123 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 70 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severe | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 70 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 143 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Food and water failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 130 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Artificial Intelligence 0.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 123 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 169 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×48 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 167 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 134 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |