Argentina
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 11.4
- rank 154 of 197 · 3 years: 11.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +1.3
- rank 65 of 197 · 3 years: +1.5
- Shock absorbed
- 36%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.16
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; consumer price inflation; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Argentina’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.83 | −0.70 | −1.17 | −0.51 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.9 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.72 | −0.68 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.66 | −0.65 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.1 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.66 | −0.64 | −0.98 | −0.43 | 0 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 5.4 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.81 | −0.63 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 18 | Monetary & Currency Capability 4.9 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.69 | −0.62 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.1 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.59 | −0.52 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 15 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.1 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.33 | −0.33 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.45 | −0.33 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.22 | −0.19 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 7 | 9 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.6 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.06 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.38 | −0.94 | −1.01 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.72 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.82 | −0.76 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.34 | −0.80 | −0.28 | −0.76 | −0.72 | −0.77 | −0.83 | −0.62 | −0.71 |
| AI labour shock | −0.71 | −0.32 | · | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.88 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.40 | −0.73 | −0.37 | −0.86 | −1.19 | −0.98 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.81 | −0.44 | −0.81 | · | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.85 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.31 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.70 | −1.14 | −0.80 | −0.71 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.43 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.53 | · | −0.59 | −0.61 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Argentina is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +26.0 | 30.6 | 4.6 | 47 | 52 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +14.0 | 40.5 | 26.4 | 49 | 44 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +9.0 | 22.1 | 13.2 | 40 | 37 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 44 | 99 | Energy Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 48 | 42 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +1.9 | 21.0 | 19.1 | 48 | 62 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8.7 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −3.5 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 48 | 144 | Intelligence & Assessment 8.3 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −5.8 | 14.4 | 20.2 | 26 | 57 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −7.1 | 7.3 | 14.4 | 29 | 79 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −14.9 | 26.2 | 41.1 | 48 | 164 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Argentina, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 119 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 99 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Food and water failure | 12.3 Established → Transitional | 1.7% Possible · rank 18 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Health system failure | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 18 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 75 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 147 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 90 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 131 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 129 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 60 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 65 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 79 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 27 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 96 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 101 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 79 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 102 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 140 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 39 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 82 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 82 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | — Remote · rank 62 | AI labour shock Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 61 | AI labour shock Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×6.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.5 Transitional → Established | 3.3% Possible · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Capable digital government | 11.5 Transitional → Established | 1.2% Possible · rank 46 | Public service leap Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.1 Transitional → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 45 | Public service leap Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 51 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 48 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.2 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 48 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.2 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.3 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 38 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Severe | ×1.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 4.6 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 61 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Stronger information environment | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Public service leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Research translated into value | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Higher-value international business | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 65 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8.7 |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Wider international influence | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |