Armenia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 24.3
- rank 90 of 197 · 3 years: 24.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.8
- rank 114 of 197 · 3 years: −8.5
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; refugees hosted per head of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Armenia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.98 | −1.07 | −1.40 | −0.61 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.81 | −0.90 | −1.25 | −0.55 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.83 | −0.81 | −1.04 | −0.46 | 0 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.68 | −0.78 | −1.01 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.70 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 2.6 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.71 | −0.61 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.2 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.57 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.71 | −0.57 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.56 | −0.51 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Transport Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.42 | −0.47 | −0.65 | −0.29 | 0 | 12 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.6 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.62 | −1.45 | −1.14 | −0.56 | −0.56 | −1.40 | −1.30 | −1.12 | −1.44 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.94 | −0.48 | −0.38 | −1.17 | −1.02 | −1.10 | −1.02 | −1.00 | −1.00 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.04 | −0.58 | −1.00 | · | −1.29 | −1.21 | −1.13 | −0.49 | −0.55 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −1.02 | −0.40 | −0.34 | −0.40 | −0.93 | −0.89 | −0.93 | −0.91 | −1.25 |
| AI labour shock | −0.77 | −0.35 | · | −0.94 | −0.82 | −0.97 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.67 | −0.36 | −0.84 | −1.17 | −0.96 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.34 | −0.37 | · | −0.38 | −0.34 | −0.77 | −1.25 | −0.88 | −0.78 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.43 | −0.94 | −0.81 | · | −1.05 | −1.08 | · | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.77 | −0.25 | −0.61 | −0.28 | −0.69 | −0.74 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.25 | −0.58 | −0.20 | −0.55 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.60 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Armenia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +11.8 | 16.7 | 4.9 | 24 | 75 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 41 | 58 | Financial System Depth & Access 7 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 33 | 117 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 18.0 | 19.4 | 26 | 149 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −6.8 | 13.5 | 20.3 | 33 | 95 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.8 | 12.4 | 22.2 | 29 | 127 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −15.5 | 19.1 | 34.6 | 28 | 156 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −17.7 | 7.4 | 25.1 | 25 | 183 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.3 | 8.0 | 26.3 | 20 | 157 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −19.6 | 7.9 | 27.5 | 16 | 92 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Armenia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 5.7% Likely · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 3.4% Possible · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.5 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 2.9% Possible · rank 41 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | 2.7% Possible · rank 16 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 8 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 11 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.5% Possible · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 32 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 16 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 7 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 10 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Health system failure | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 26 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 13 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 15 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 14 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 90 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 90 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 90 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |