Austria
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 9.2
- rank 168 of 197 · 3 years: 9.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +27.3
- rank 17 of 197 · 3 years: +27.4
- Shock absorbed
- 50%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.09
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; share of population aged 65 and over; few months of imports covered by reserves; public debt relative to gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Austria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.92 | −0.80 | −1.31 | −0.56 | ▼ 2 | 29 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.90 | −0.60 | −1.13 | −0.49 | ▲ 1 | 22 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 5.9 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.81 | −0.59 | −1.25 | −0.53 | 0 | 22 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.2 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.85 | −0.57 | −1.26 | −0.53 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 8.8 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.87 | −0.48 | −1.08 | −0.46 | 0 | 16 | Financial System Depth & Access 13.2 · Established |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.73 | −0.48 | −0.79 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.63 | −0.45 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.3 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.29 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 12 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10.7 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.50 | −0.29 | −0.70 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.44 | −0.26 | −0.56 | −0.24 | 0 | 9 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.4 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.46 | −1.09 | −0.86 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.84 | −1.08 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.78 | −0.43 | −0.74 | · | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.63 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.76 | −0.67 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.65 |
| AI labour shock | −0.63 | −0.29 | · | −0.77 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.29 | −0.32 | · | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.65 | −1.06 | −0.74 | −0.66 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.36 | −0.79 | −0.68 | · | −0.88 | −0.91 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.59 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.71 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.17 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Austria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +47.0 | 48.2 | 1.2 | 62 | 21 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +45.9 | 46.1 | 0.2 | 54 | 16 | Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +39.9 | 50.5 | 10.6 | 57 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 10 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +32.0 | 47.9 | 15.8 | 70 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12.8 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +28.0 | 28.7 | 0.7 | 55 | 22 | Intelligence & Assessment 8.5 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +21.8 | 30.3 | 8.6 | 59 | 16 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +18.7 | 30.0 | 11.3 | 67 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +9.8 | 13.2 | 3.4 | 62 | 31 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 65 | 83 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.9 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 67 | 122 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Austria, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 3.5% Possible · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 15.1 Advanced → Transitional | 2.4% Possible · rank 62 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 1.9% Possible · rank 34 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 1.5% Possible · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 33 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 53 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 96 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 12.3 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 50 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 21 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 57 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 57 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Health system failure | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 96 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 15.0 Advanced → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 32 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 15.1 Advanced → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 38 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.4 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 11 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 22 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Food and water failure | 13.3 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 131 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 82 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 98 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 46 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier AI and compute | 10.6 Transitional → Established | 17% Likely · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Capable digital government | 15.0 Established → Advanced | 11% Likely · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 10% Likely · rank 21 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 7.6% Likely · rank 21 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 6.5% Likely · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.3 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Trusted public institutions | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 5.5% Likely · rank 16 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.1 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Research translated into value | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 4.8% Possible · rank 19 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.2 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 4.5% Possible · rank 16 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 13.2 Established → Established | 4.2% Possible · rank 17 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 19 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 15.0 Advanced → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 18 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.7 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 12.8 Established → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 19 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.8 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Higher-value international business | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 3.0% Possible · rank 18 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.0 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Secure food and water supply | 13.3 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 21 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.0 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 16.1 Advanced → Advanced | 1.7% Possible · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 1.5% Possible · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12.8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 18 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.7 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Assured space services | 5.5 Nascent → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.0 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| Stronger information environment | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 24 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| Wider international influence | 12.3 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 24 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Severe | ×2.0 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.4 Nascent → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 18 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.0 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |
| More deployable joint force | 5.9 Nascent → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 18 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.0 | Artificial Intelligence 10 |