Bahrain
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.4
- rank 105 of 197 · 3 years: 20.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.9
- rank 116 of 197 · 3 years: −9.1
- Shock absorbed
- 31%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.24
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 3of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; public debt relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bahrain’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −0.99 | −1.46 | −0.64 | ▼ 8 | 32 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.85 | −1.09 | −0.49 | ▼ 4 | 24 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.68 | −0.72 | −1.05 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.69 | −1.01 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Artificial Intelligence 2.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.62 | −0.63 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.81 | −0.63 | −1.02 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Economic Output & Productivity 5.5 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.62 | −0.62 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.8 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.52 | −0.52 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.60 | −0.48 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.9 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.43 | −0.36 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.56 | −1.32 | −1.22 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −1.27 | −1.19 | −1.02 | −1.31 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.01 | −0.61 | −1.12 | · | −1.36 | −1.27 | −1.19 | −0.51 | −0.58 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.75 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.93 | −0.82 | −0.87 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| AI labour shock | −0.74 | −0.35 | · | −0.93 | −0.81 | −0.96 | −0.81 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.76 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −1.02 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.38 | −0.42 | · | −0.42 | −0.38 | −0.85 | −1.39 | −0.97 | −0.87 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.32 | −0.77 | −0.27 | −0.72 | −0.69 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.59 | −0.67 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.60 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.98 | −0.81 | −0.30 | −0.35 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.36 | −0.79 | −0.79 | · | −0.87 | −0.90 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.55 | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.45 | −0.45 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bahrain is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.4 | 18.4 | 5.0 | 27 | 77 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 21.9 | 11.4 | 29 | 48 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +8.6 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 27 | 48 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +0.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 20 | 46 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −4.9 | 3.4 | 8.2 | 35 | 160 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.7 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.0 | 22.3 | 31.3 | 40 | 107 | Energy Infrastructure 6.6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.9 | 8.3 | 20.2 | 27 | 154 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −12.9 | 18.5 | 31.4 | 35 | 168 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.5 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −16.1 | 8.1 | 24.2 | 12 | 79 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −44.4 | 8.4 | 52.8 | 25 | 173 | Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Bahrain, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 3.6% Possible · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 3.6% Possible · rank 22 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 2.7% Possible · rank 12 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 2.0% Possible · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 46 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 71 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 18 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 24 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 61 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 5.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 58 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Food and water failure | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6.5 |
| Health system failure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 102 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 62 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 85 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 63 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Capable digital government | 11.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |