Bangladesh
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 17.4
- rank 121 of 197 · 3 years: 17.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −2.1
- rank 76 of 197 · 3 years: −1.7
- Shock absorbed
- 28%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 1of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bangladesh’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.79 | −0.75 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.64 | −0.71 | −0.95 | −0.42 | 0 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 2.2 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.67 | −0.69 | −0.98 | −0.43 | 0 | 25 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 2.6 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.61 | −0.58 | −0.85 | −0.37 | 0 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.53 | −0.58 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▲ 4 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.5 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.53 | −0.54 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 4 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.48 | −0.52 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Internal Security & Order 5.7 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.50 | −0.45 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Labour & Employment 5.2 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.40 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 5 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.42 | −0.34 | −0.47 | −0.20 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.43 | −0.48 | −0.87 | −0.43 | −1.01 | −1.41 | −1.16 | −0.43 | −0.50 |
| AI labour shock | −0.79 | −0.36 | · | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.39 | −0.92 | −0.85 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.71 | −0.91 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.86 | −0.28 | −0.69 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.62 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.75 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.70 | −0.38 | −0.70 | · | −0.84 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.27 | −0.64 | −0.22 | −0.61 | −0.58 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.27 | −0.30 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −0.99 | −0.69 | −0.62 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.46 | −0.47 | −0.46 | −0.64 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.55 | · | −0.61 | −0.63 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bangladesh is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +20.9 | 21.4 | 0.5 | 26 | 44 | Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +17.9 | 19.5 | 1.6 | 36 | 43 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.3 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +14.6 | 17.7 | 3.1 | 34 | 28 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.6 | 16.5 | 5.9 | 33 | 88 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +6.6 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 35 | 28 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −4.3 | 17.6 | 21.9 | 25 | 95 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 15.4 | 25.0 | 33 | 125 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −12.1 | 18.1 | 30.2 | 34 | 128 | Technical & Vocational Skills 6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −17.9 | 5.1 | 23.0 | 20 | 150 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −29.1 | 7.1 | 36.2 | 15 | 150 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Bangladesh, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 163 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×2.0 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 133 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 162 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 144 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 103 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 143 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 6.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 156 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severe | ×2.1 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Health system failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 144 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Food and water failure | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 90 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 6.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 86 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 6.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 53 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 106 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 125 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 6.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 160 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 126 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 143 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 135 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.4 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 68 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Technologies 3.4 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |