Belarus
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 19.3
- rank 114 of 197 · 3 years: 19.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.3
- rank 112 of 197 · 3 years: −8.1
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.24
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Belarus’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.89 | −0.93 | −1.29 | −0.57 | ▼ 5 | 26 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.86 | −0.93 | −1.34 | −0.59 | ▼ 4 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.80 | −0.87 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 5 | 25 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.82 | −1.08 | −0.48 | ▼ 2 | 21 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 1.3 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.70 | −0.74 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 1.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.65 | −0.71 | −0.97 | −0.43 | 0 | 20 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.56 | −0.54 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.4 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.43 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.4 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Low 0.34 | −0.31 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.9 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.20 | −0.15 | −0.23 | −0.10 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Maritime Power 0.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.52 | −1.24 | −1.15 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.19 | −1.11 | −0.95 | −1.23 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.98 | −0.49 | −0.45 | −1.19 | −1.04 | −1.12 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −1.14 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.02 | −0.98 | −1.02 | −1.00 | −1.38 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.05 | −0.57 | −1.14 | · | −1.27 | −1.19 | −1.11 | −0.48 | −0.54 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.42 | −0.47 | −0.93 | −0.42 | −0.99 | −1.38 | −1.13 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| AI labour shock | −0.78 | −0.36 | · | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.32 | −0.36 | · | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.73 | −1.19 | −0.83 | −0.74 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.22 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.47 | −0.51 | −0.54 | −0.41 | −0.46 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.46 | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.44 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.27 | · | −0.27 | −0.28 | · | −0.10 | −0.10 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Belarus is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +16.0 | 20.9 | 4.8 | 30 | 57 | Energy Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 25.3 | 19.4 | 34 | 104 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 29 | 122 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.3 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.3 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 29 | 129 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −7.6 | 28.1 | 35.7 | 35 | 115 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −15.0 | 11.3 | 26.3 | 31 | 139 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −17.0 | 8.1 | 25.1 | 34 | 179 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.0 | 12.1 | 30.1 | 25 | 152 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −19.5 | 9.3 | 28.7 | 25 | 179 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −20.5 | 11.9 | 32.4 | 23 | 99 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Belarus, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 3.7% Possible · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.3 Foundational → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 66 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 35 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 27 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 70 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 12 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Health system failure | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 29 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 41 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 38 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 47 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 96 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 2 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 35 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 44 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 38 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 57 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 86 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 35 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 12 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.1 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 24 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Food and water failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 167 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 11 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 64 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.4 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Capable digital government | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 81 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.5 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.5 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |