Benin
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 31.9
- rank 65 of 197 · 3 years: 31.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −2.9
- rank 80 of 197 · 3 years: −2.7
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Benin’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.92 | −1.13 | −1.40 | −0.62 | ▼ 14 | 29 | Energy Infrastructure 1.2 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.70 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.65 | −0.63 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.8 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.60 | −0.73 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.61 | −0.58 | −0.74 | −0.33 | 0 | 13 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.47 | −0.55 | −0.67 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Artificial Intelligence 0.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.47 | −0.50 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.40 | −0.43 | −0.56 | −0.24 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.30 | −0.35 | −0.41 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.27 | −0.26 | −0.30 | −0.13 | 0 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.36 | −1.44 | −0.50 | −1.35 | −1.29 | −1.38 | −1.48 | −1.11 | −1.27 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.32 | −1.14 | −0.96 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.03 | −0.88 | −1.13 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.25 | −0.41 | −0.74 | −0.37 | −0.87 | −1.21 | −0.99 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.28 | −0.82 | −0.72 | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.25 | −0.39 | · | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.81 | −1.31 | −0.92 | −0.82 |
| AI labour shock | −0.40 | −0.29 | · | −0.78 | −0.68 | −0.80 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.40 | −0.38 | −0.70 | · | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.65 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.62 | −0.53 | −0.53 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.44 | −0.43 | −0.59 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.16 | −0.42 | −0.42 | · | −0.47 | −0.48 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Benin is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.0 | 12.8 | 3.7 | 14 | 46 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +8.1 | 9.8 | 1.7 | 13 | 93 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +7.7 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 21 | 76 | Intelligence & Assessment 3 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +6.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 24 | 31 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 16 | 73 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.7 | 6.9 | 13.6 | 15 | 167 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.2 | 15.1 | 24.2 | 16 | 125 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 14.2 | 23.8 | 21 | 112 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −9.9 | 2.8 | 12.7 | 11 | 95 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.1 | 2.0 | 25.1 | 6 | 122 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Benin, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 8 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 2.3% Possible · rank 110 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 82 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 24 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 125 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 116 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 109 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 92 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 118 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 90 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 29 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 92 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 121 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×14 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |