Bhutan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 36.2
- rank 48 of 197 · 3 years: 35.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −11.1
- rank 138 of 197 · 3 years: −10.8
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.29
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bhutan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.90 | −0.98 | −1.15 | −0.53 | ▼ 7 | 21 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.77 | −0.86 | −1.05 | −0.48 | ▼ 8 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.62 | −0.70 | −0.86 | −0.39 | 0 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.72 | −0.69 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▼ 3 | 14 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.68 | −0.65 | −0.73 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.72 | −0.64 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.7 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.44 | −0.49 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 4 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.51 | −0.45 | −0.51 | −0.23 | ▼ 5 | 9 | Intelligence & Assessment 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.41 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 7 | 10 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.7 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.41 | −0.41 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 8 | 11 | Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.27 | −1.43 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −1.41 | −1.32 | −1.13 | −1.45 |
| AI labour shock | −0.35 | −0.47 | · | −1.25 | −1.10 | −1.29 | −1.10 | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.30 | −0.41 | −0.22 | −0.99 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.47 | · | −0.47 | −0.42 | −0.95 | −1.56 | −1.09 | −0.97 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.34 | −0.54 | −0.63 | · | −1.20 | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.23 | −0.44 | −0.56 | −0.40 | −0.93 | −1.29 | −1.06 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.88 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.80 | −0.53 | · | −0.89 | −0.92 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.18 | −0.53 | −0.12 | −0.50 | −0.48 | −0.51 | −0.54 | −0.41 | −0.47 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.63 | −0.14 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.60 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bhutan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +10.9 | 11.5 | 0.6 | 12 | 78 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +6.5 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 17 | 82 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 31 | 64 | Energy Infrastructure 5 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 14 | 137 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 12 | 95 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.1 | 11.5 | 22.5 | 18 | 140 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −14.9 | 7.7 | 22.6 | 16 | 155 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −20.0 | 2.7 | 22.7 | 9 | 161 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −22.4 | 11.9 | 34.2 | 18 | 166 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −37.3 | 2.9 | 40.2 | 5 | 180 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Bhutan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 3.4% Possible · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 2.9% Possible · rank 39 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 2.0% Possible · rank 44 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Major | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 30 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 106 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 20 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 149 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 120 | Regional war spillover Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Artificial Intelligence 1 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 152 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 87 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Artificial Intelligence 1 |
| Food and water failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 144 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 145 | AI labour shock Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Artificial Intelligence 1 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×17 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 145 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |