Botswana
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 19.8
- rank 109 of 197 · 3 years: 19.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −3.4
- rank 82 of 197 · 3 years: −3.3
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.22
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; youth unemployment rate; low life expectancy at birth; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Botswana’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.74 | −0.81 | −1.03 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.68 | −0.75 | −1.01 | −0.45 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.71 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.68 | −0.69 | −0.82 | −0.37 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.79 | −0.66 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.4 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.45 | −0.49 | −0.70 | −0.31 | 0 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 3.2 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.52 | −0.47 | −0.72 | −0.32 | 0 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.43 | −0.46 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.48 | −0.39 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.35 | −0.44 | −0.19 | 0 | 4 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.43 | −1.11 | −0.82 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.86 | −1.10 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.67 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −1.00 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| AI labour shock | −0.66 | −0.37 | · | −0.98 | −0.86 | −1.01 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.71 | −0.51 | −0.85 | · | −1.14 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.36 | −0.43 | −0.71 | −0.39 | −0.92 | −1.28 | −1.05 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.25 | −0.61 | −0.19 | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.58 | −0.62 | −0.47 | −0.53 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.71 | −0.20 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.63 | −0.68 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.50 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.55 | −0.76 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.26 | · | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.87 | −0.61 | −0.54 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.50 | · | −0.66 | −0.68 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Botswana is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +15.6 | 17.0 | 1.4 | 19 | 59 | Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +8.2 | 11.3 | 3.1 | 22 | 53 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +7.5 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 29 | 77 | Intelligence & Assessment 4 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.8 | 14.5 | 10.7 | 22 | 117 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.1 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 34 | 82 | Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −1.3 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 24 | 83 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 11.1 | 16.7 | 25 | 108 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 15 | 71 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −16.0 | 17.7 | 33.6 | 28 | 146 | Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.9 | 4.3 | 28.2 | 9 | 124 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Botswana, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 122 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 137 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 73 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 139 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 134 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Health system failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 109 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 108 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 130 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Food and water failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 142 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 117 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 124 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 126 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 151 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 145 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 142 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 139 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 105 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 97 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 97 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 97 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 107 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 97 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 97 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |