Brazil
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 6.5
- rank 183 of 197 · 3 years: 6.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +4.6
- rank 57 of 197 · 3 years: +4.7
- Shock absorbed
- 45%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.07
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Global funding seizure, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; public debt relative to gdp; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Brazil’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.70 | −0.58 | −1.08 | −0.47 | 0 | 19 | Labour & Employment 9.9 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.57 | −1.00 | −0.44 | 0 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 8.2 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.68 | −0.55 | −0.87 | −0.38 | 0 | 19 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.53 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Internal Security & Order 9.4 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.65 | −0.47 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 11 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.58 | −0.38 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 9 | Labour & Employment 10.1 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.42 | −0.33 | −0.62 | −0.27 | 0 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.7 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.43 | −0.27 | −0.48 | −0.21 | 0 | 12 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8.6 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.22 | −0.19 | −0.35 | −0.15 | 0 | 9 | Internal Security & Order 10.3 · Transitional |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.22 | −0.16 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 6 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.61 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| AI labour shock | −0.63 | −0.29 | · | −0.76 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.65 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.72 | −0.39 | −0.72 | · | −0.87 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.33 | −0.37 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.62 | −0.31 | −0.72 | −1.00 | −0.82 | −0.31 | −0.35 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.70 | −0.23 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.63 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.51 | −0.84 | −0.59 | −0.52 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.53 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.20 | −0.44 | −0.44 | · | −0.49 | −0.51 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.20 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Brazil is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +33.2 | 36.6 | 3.4 | 57 | 38 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +21.0 | 41.7 | 20.8 | 58 | 28 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +18.6 | 30.3 | 11.7 | 54 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +10.9 | 23.7 | 12.9 | 58 | 34 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 60 | 16 | Foundational Education 11.3 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +6.2 | 20.8 | 14.5 | 39 | 39 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +1.9 | 16.0 | 14.1 | 42 | 42 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.3 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 17.3 | 22.4 | 59 | 126 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −8.3 | 12.6 | 20.9 | 58 | 156 | Internal Security & Order 10.7 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −16.0 | 14.3 | 30.3 | 57 | 161 | Energy Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Brazil, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 183 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 171 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 148 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 174 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 122 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 173 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 110 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Artificial Intelligence 9.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 125 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Artificial Intelligence 9.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 85 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 185 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 12.1 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 136 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 136 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 12.9 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 86 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Food and water failure | 13.2 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 178 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 12.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.1 Established → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 176 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 12.2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 12.2 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 88 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 12.2 Established → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 166 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.6 | Artificial Intelligence 9.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 149 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 49 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.6 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 165 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 12.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 13.3 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 125 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×5.1 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 12.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.4 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 178 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 48 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×6.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 12.3 Established → Established | 6.6% Likely · rank 30 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Capable digital government | 12.4 Established → Established | 3.3% Possible · rank 32 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 2.6% Possible · rank 35 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 12.1 Established → Established | 2.1% Possible · rank 34 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 7.3 Foundational → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 40 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 9.0 Foundational → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 39 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 13.1 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 33 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.1 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 38 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Public service leap Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Secure food and water supply | 13.2 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 12.5 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.3 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 11.9 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 11.0 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 11.9 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Stronger information environment | 11.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Public service leap Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 13.5 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 36 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 |
| Research translated into value | 11.4 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Wider international influence | 12.1 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Public service leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Higher-value international business | 11.9 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 62 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 |
| Broad rise in national security | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 34 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 37 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 12.0 Established | — No route · rank 32 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |