Bulgaria
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 14.9
- rank 135 of 197 · 3 years: 14.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +3.4
- rank 62 of 197 · 3 years: +3.6
- Shock absorbed
- 36%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.19
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bulgaria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −0.85 | −1.37 | −0.60 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.3 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.86 | −0.85 | −1.33 | −0.58 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.79 | −0.75 | −1.18 | −0.51 | 0 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 4.8 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.75 | −1.06 | −0.46 | 0 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.59 | −0.57 | −0.87 | −0.38 | 0 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.73 | −0.52 | −0.80 | −0.35 | 0 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.5 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.44 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.5 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.40 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Investment Attraction & Projection 7.4 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.47 | −0.38 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.1 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.31 | −0.30 | −0.49 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.4 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.48 | −1.13 | −1.05 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.09 | −1.02 | −0.87 | −1.12 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.90 | −0.45 | −0.37 | −1.09 | −0.96 | −1.02 | −0.96 | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| AI labour shock | −0.83 | −0.38 | · | −1.01 | −0.88 | −1.04 | −0.88 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.98 | −0.53 | −0.98 | · | −1.18 | −1.11 | −1.03 | −0.44 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.75 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.29 | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.90 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.38 | −0.84 | −0.84 | · | −0.93 | −0.96 | · | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.66 | −0.21 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.59 | −0.63 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.26 | · | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.87 | −0.61 | −0.54 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.44 | −0.22 | −0.51 | −0.71 | −0.58 | −0.22 | −0.25 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bulgaria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +31.5 | 33.9 | 2.4 | 41 | 43 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +20.6 | 32.3 | 11.7 | 37 | 45 | Energy Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +16.3 | 24.2 | 7.9 | 46 | 49 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 38 | 60 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −1.6 | 20.7 | 22.3 | 25 | 53 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −1.7 | 20.8 | 22.5 | 47 | 74 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.3 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −2.3 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 41 | 118 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 13.7 | 16.1 | 30 | 57 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.6 | 33.9 | 36.4 | 43 | 91 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −8.2 | 2.1 | 10.3 | 51 | 186 | Financial System Depth & Access 9.4 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Bulgaria, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 3.9% Possible · rank 44 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 2.0% Possible · rank 48 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 15 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.6% Possible · rank 109 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 25 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 61 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 21 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 21 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Health system failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 44 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 11 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 11 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 44 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Food and water failure | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 40 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 30 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 24 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 18 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 64 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 3.0% Possible · rank 36 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.6 | Energy Technologies 5.2 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 50 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 50 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Capable digital government | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 59 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.4 Transitional → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 56 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 4.6 Nascent → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 46 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.8 Nascent → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 50 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.5 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.5 Foundational → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Research translated into value | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Technologies 5.2 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 9.7 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.6 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.9 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.3 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Technologies 5.2 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 5.2 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 5.2 |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.4 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 62 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Wider international influence | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.5 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.1 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | — Remote · rank 61 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Assured space services | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.8 Foundational → Transitional | — Remote · rank 60 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |