Burkina Faso
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 34.7
- rank 54 of 197 · 3 years: 34.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.2
- rank 126 of 197 · 3 years: −10.2
- Shock absorbed
- 15%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Burkina Faso’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.71 | −0.84 | −0.97 | −0.44 | 0 | 21 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.80 | −0.96 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.4 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.56 | −0.70 | −0.85 | −0.37 | ▲ 2 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.67 | −0.67 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.47 | −0.58 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.44 | −0.49 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 3 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.39 | −0.48 | −0.55 | −0.25 | ▲ 3 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.37 | −0.44 | −0.50 | −0.23 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.40 | −0.43 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.22 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.10 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.29 | −1.20 | −0.81 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.15 | −1.08 | −0.92 | −1.19 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.29 | −0.54 | −0.85 | −0.49 | −1.14 | −1.58 | −1.30 | −0.49 | −0.56 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.25 | −0.90 | −0.28 | −0.84 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.69 | −0.79 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.45 | · | −0.46 | −0.41 | −0.93 | −1.51 | −1.06 | −0.94 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.39 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.75 | −0.21 | −0.59 | −0.27 | −0.67 | −0.71 | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| AI labour shock | −0.35 | −0.25 | · | −0.68 | −0.59 | −0.70 | −0.59 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.53 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.75 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.55 | · | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.28 | · | −0.38 | −0.39 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Burkina Faso is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +7.4 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 10 | 95 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 14.3 | 7.7 | 21 | 27 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 19 | 87 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.2 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.0 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 14 | 69 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −4.3 | 4.0 | 8.2 | 15 | 100 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −8.4 | 6.4 | 14.7 | 14 | 177 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −10.1 | 2.2 | 12.4 | 9 | 96 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −15.5 | 12.1 | 27.5 | 13 | 166 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −28.2 | 12.5 | 40.7 | 18 | 182 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −37.0 | 1.4 | 38.4 | 5 | 178 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Burkina Faso, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 2.5% Possible · rank 58 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 2.2% Possible · rank 114 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 91 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Major | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 126 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 84 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 152 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Food and water failure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 99 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 134 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 140 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 176 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 176 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 161 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 162 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×18 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 162 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 162 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×3.9 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 162 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |