Burundi
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 52.0
- rank 19 of 197 · 3 years: 51.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.2
- rank 111 of 197 · 3 years: −8.1
- Shock absorbed
- 11%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.29
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; few months of imports covered by reserves; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Burundi’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.76 | −0.89 | −0.97 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.81 | −0.92 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.3 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.61 | −0.79 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.76 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.1 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.63 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.48 | −0.59 | −0.66 | −0.29 | 0 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.41 | −0.49 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.44 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.40 | −0.41 | −0.44 | −0.20 | 0 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.18 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.08 | 0 | 4 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.09 | −1.24 | −0.83 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.29 | −1.21 | −1.03 | −1.27 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.09 | −0.56 | −0.82 | −0.51 | −1.19 | −1.66 | −1.36 | −0.51 | −0.58 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.09 | −1.04 | −0.32 | −0.98 | −0.93 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −0.80 | −0.92 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.09 | −0.53 | · | −0.54 | −0.48 | −1.09 | −1.77 | −1.24 | −1.10 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.95 | −0.27 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.09 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.85 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| AI labour shock | −0.09 | −0.28 | · | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.76 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.58 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.09 | −0.34 | −0.55 | · | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.06 | −0.29 | −0.24 | · | −0.32 | −0.33 | · | −0.12 | −0.12 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Burundi is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 16 | 50 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 6 | 118 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +2.0 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 15 | 107 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 7 | 97 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.3 | 2.2 | 10.6 | 9 | 119 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −10.8 | 9.4 | 20.2 | 12 | 122 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −12.4 | 3.6 | 16.0 | 8 | 186 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −13.1 | 2.4 | 15.6 | 7 | 113 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −20.9 | 8.0 | 29.0 | 8 | 182 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.9 | 0.8 | 24.7 | 3 | 125 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Burundi, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.6% Possible · rank 21 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.8% Possible · rank 86 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 50 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 120 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Health system failure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 111 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Food and water failure | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 87 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×32 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |