Cabo Verde
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 29.4
- rank 75 of 197 · 3 years: 29.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −5.2
- rank 94 of 197 · 3 years: −5.1
- Shock absorbed
- 22%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; remittances relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Cabo Verde’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.79 | −0.87 | −1.03 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.71 | −0.79 | −1.01 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.76 | −0.74 | −1.05 | −0.46 | ▼ 6 | 21 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 1.9 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.73 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.78 | −0.71 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.67 | −0.65 | −0.74 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.77 | −0.63 | −0.92 | −0.41 | 0 | 18 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.4 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.52 | −0.61 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.43 | −0.51 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.34 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 0.7 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.24 | −1.18 | −0.79 | −0.49 | −0.49 | −1.23 | −1.15 | −0.98 | −1.26 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.31 | −0.46 | −0.32 | −1.12 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.13 | −0.31 | −0.90 | −0.40 | −1.01 | −1.07 | −0.92 | −0.92 |
| AI labour shock | −0.32 | −0.40 | · | −1.06 | −0.93 | −1.10 | −0.93 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.20 | −0.49 | · | −0.49 | −0.44 | −0.99 | −1.62 | −1.14 | −1.01 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.35 | −0.52 | −0.79 | · | −1.16 | −1.09 | −1.02 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.65 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −1.27 | −1.04 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.78 | −0.23 | −0.73 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.60 | −0.68 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.55 | −0.76 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.59 | −0.52 | · | −0.66 | −0.68 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Cabo Verde is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 31 | 30 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 15 | 68 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −0.8 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 16 | 147 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 17.3 | 18.8 | 25 | 73 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −3.2 | 16.3 | 19.5 | 21 | 91 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −3.9 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 21 | 146 | Intelligence & Assessment 2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −4.0 | 10.4 | 14.4 | 14 | 143 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −6.9 | 3.8 | 10.7 | 11 | 77 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.5 | 7.3 | 19.7 | 18 | 141 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −17.6 | 2.6 | 20.3 | 6 | 87 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Cabo Verde, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 4.2% Possible · rank 14 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 3.7% Possible · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 2.1% Possible · rank 26 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 71 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 42 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Health system failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 40 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Food and water failure | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 47 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 27 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 39 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 129 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 62 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 47 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 138 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 139 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×48 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 138 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.2 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |