Cambodia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 31.1
- rank 68 of 197 · 3 years: 30.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.7
- rank 134 of 197 · 3 years: −10.2
- Shock absorbed
- 20%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; industry as a share of gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Cambodia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.97 | −1.12 | −1.37 | −0.62 | ▼ 6 | 26 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.87 | −0.95 | −1.20 | −0.54 | ▼ 7 | 23 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.70 | −0.74 | −0.84 | −0.38 | 0 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.62 | −0.73 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.63 | −0.72 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 0.5 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.55 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.61 | −0.54 | −0.67 | −0.29 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.54 | −0.50 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.6 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.45 | −0.48 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 16 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.1 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.29 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.49 | −1.53 | −1.33 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.47 | −1.37 | −1.18 | −1.52 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.71 | −0.52 | −0.47 | −0.52 | −1.21 | −1.16 | −1.21 | −1.18 | −1.62 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.67 | −0.55 | −1.01 | · | −1.23 | −1.15 | −1.07 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.59 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.98 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| AI labour shock | −0.61 | −0.38 | · | −1.00 | −0.88 | −1.03 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.83 | −0.27 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.34 | −0.89 | −0.89 | · | −0.99 | −1.02 | · | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.69 | −1.12 | −0.79 | −0.70 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.24 | −0.31 | −0.56 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.91 | −0.74 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Cambodia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +13.8 | 15.4 | 1.6 | 16 | 65 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 25 | 68 | Intelligence & Assessment 4 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.8 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 17 | 102 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.8 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 26 | 108 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −6.8 | 6.8 | 13.6 | 18 | 131 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −7.7 | 11.3 | 18.9 | 16 | 115 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −16.8 | 7.1 | 24.0 | 18 | 164 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −17.7 | 21.4 | 39.2 | 28 | 152 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4.7 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −25.9 | 10.9 | 36.8 | 15 | 175 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −33.0 | 4.8 | 37.9 | 7 | 164 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Cambodia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 3.3% Possible · rank 7 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 2.8% Possible · rank 87 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 2.6% Possible · rank 2 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 90 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 69 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 49 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 67 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 45 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 13 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 18 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 48 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 61 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Health system failure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 161 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Food and water failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 149 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 89 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 96 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 144 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |