Canada
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 5.2
- rank 193 of 197 · 3 years: 5.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +23.7
- rank 19 of 197 · 3 years: +23.4
- Shock absorbed
- 59%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.01
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Information Environment & Strategic Communication
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; adult obesity rate; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Canada’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.85 | −0.51 | −1.26 | −0.51 | 0 | 17 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.6 · Established |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.80 | −0.51 | −1.24 | −0.50 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.90 | −0.49 | −1.15 | −0.47 | 0 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.5 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.74 | −0.47 | −1.11 | −0.47 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.2 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.72 | −0.35 | −0.90 | −0.35 | 0 | 9 | Economic Output & Productivity 14.2 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.54 | −0.29 | −0.76 | −0.29 | 0 | 9 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13.9 · Established |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.58 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.27 | 0 | 9 | Maritime Power 10.5 · Transitional |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.42 | −0.26 | −0.62 | −0.24 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 6.8 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.44 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.23 | 0 | 9 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.5 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.31 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.20 | 0 | 9 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.1 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.57 | −0.26 | · | −0.69 | −0.60 | −0.71 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.54 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.65 | −0.57 | −0.61 | −0.57 | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.62 | −0.34 | −0.68 | · | −0.75 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.62 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.53 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.75 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.21 | −0.23 | · | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.47 | −0.77 | −0.54 | −0.48 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.43 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.41 | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.20 | −0.44 | −0.48 | · | −0.49 | −0.51 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.33 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.43 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.15 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Canada is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +56.0 | 71.6 | 15.5 | 80 | 2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 · Advanced |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +54.3 | 61.4 | 7.1 | 63 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +51.7 | 54.4 | 2.8 | 74 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +34.8 | 46.0 | 11.2 | 63 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +14.3 | 18.9 | 4.5 | 76 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.4 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +13.0 | 24.6 | 11.6 | 76 | 29 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 23.2 | 20.9 | 72 | 124 | Energy Technologies 13 · Established |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.8 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 80 | 73 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −0.2 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 78 | 123 | Intelligence & Assessment 15.2 · Advanced |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 7.9 | 12.9 | 78 | 125 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Canada, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 182 | AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15 |
| Loss of financial stability | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 165 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 15.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 161 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 15.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 66 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 103 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 14.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 80 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 178 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 16.0 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 84 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 15.1 Advanced → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 142 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 99 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 15.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 14 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.2 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 14.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 19 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 104 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 178 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 163 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×4.6 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 14.3 |
| Health system failure | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 183 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 94 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 15.7 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 66 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 12.4 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 87 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×5.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 16.3 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 117 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15 |
| Collapse in energy security | 15.6 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×6.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 15.8 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×6.8 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Food and water failure | 15.3 Advanced → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 187 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×6.5 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 41 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×5.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 25% Highly likely · rank 5 | Chronic disease advance Severe | ×0.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 12.9 Established → Established | 19% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Research translated into value | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 16% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 16% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Capable digital government | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 15% Likely · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.2 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 6.7% Likely · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 14 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 13 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 5.5% Likely · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 4.8% Possible · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 4.5% Possible · rank 10 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 4.0% Possible · rank 23 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Higher-value international business | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 3.8% Possible · rank 15 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 16.4 Advanced → Advanced | 3.8% Possible · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 16.4 Advanced → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 12 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 |
| Wider international influence | 16.0 Advanced → Advanced | 2.3% Possible · rank 7 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Assured space services | 13.0 Established → Established | 2.3% Possible · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Secure food and water supply | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 2.2% Possible · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 9 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Broad rise in national security | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 9 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| More deployable joint force | 12.8 Established → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 9 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 1.6% Possible · rank 8 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |