Africa · CAF

Central African Rep.

Baseline index 1.66Rank 193 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profileAll results

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years: 66.1; rank 12 of 197 · 3 years: 66.0
Worst case: −48.8%; Legitimacy rupture · tail −45.1%
Opportunity · 10 years: −13.2; rank 153 of 197 · 3 years: −13.1
Best case: +2; Clean power threshold · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed: 7%; by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend: +0.26; expected index points from best practice
Breadth: 0of 10; scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link: Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies; weakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Central African Rep.’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Legitimacy rupture (S05)

Regional war spillover (S03)

Severe pandemic (S10)

Core disaster (S07)

Global funding seizure (S02)

Breadbasket failure (S06)

AI labour shock (S08)

Trade bloc rupture (S01)

Cryptographic trust break (S09)

Hybrid coercion (S04)

−0.81

−0.80

−0.64

−0.61

−0.60

−0.51

−0.46

−0.40

−0.38

−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Legitimacy rupture S05	High 0.78	−0.81	−0.88	−0.41	0	7	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Regional war spillover S03	High 0.70	−0.80	−0.85	−0.40	▼ 1	7	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Severe pandemic S10	Medium 0.50	−0.64	−0.68	−0.31	0	7	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Core disaster S07	Medium 0.49	−0.61	−0.67	−0.29	0	7	Energy Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception
Global funding seizure S02	Medium 0.56	−0.60	−0.66	−0.30	▼ 1	6	Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception
Breadbasket failure S06	Medium 0.38	−0.51	−0.56	−0.25	▲ 2	7	Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
AI labour shock S08	Medium 0.37	−0.46	−0.49	−0.22	▲ 2	6	Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
Trade bloc rupture S01	Low 0.33	−0.40	−0.43	−0.19	▲ 1	7	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Cryptographic trust break S09	Medium 0.37	−0.38	−0.39	−0.18	▲ 2	5	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Hybrid coercion S04	Low 0.22	−0.20	−0.21	−0.10	▲ 2	4	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT Critical Technology	SI Strategic Infrastructure	NS National Security	HC Human Capital	II Information & Influence	GI Governance & Integrity	FS Financial Strength	PI Production & Innovation	TI Trade & Investment
Legitimacy rupture	−0.09	−0.58	−0.68	−0.53	−1.10	−1.74	−1.42	−0.53	−0.61
Regional war spillover	−0.09	−1.10	−0.54	−0.49	−0.49	−1.22	−1.14	−0.97	−1.16
Severe pandemic	−0.09	−0.38	−0.24	−0.93	−0.80	−0.87	−0.81	−0.80	−0.80
Core disaster	−0.02	−0.91	−0.23	−0.74	−0.33	−0.83	−0.88	−0.76	−0.76
Global funding seizure	−0.09	−0.42	·	−0.43	−0.38	−0.86	−1.41	−0.98	−0.85
Breadbasket failure	−0.09	−0.67	−0.18	−0.63	−0.60	−0.65	−0.69	−0.52	−0.59
AI labour shock	−0.09	−0.26	·	−0.68	−0.60	−0.71	−0.60	−0.59	−0.59
Trade bloc rupture	−0.09	−0.23	−0.16	−0.23	−0.54	−0.52	−0.54	−0.53	−0.73
Cryptographic trust break	−0.09	−0.32	−0.40	·	−0.71	−0.67	−0.62	−0.27	−0.31
Hybrid coercion	−0.07	−0.36	−0.25	·	−0.40	−0.42	·	−0.15	−0.15

Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Central African Rep. is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Clean power threshold S15 ↗	Mixed	+1.6	3.6	2.0	5	127	Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S14 ↗	Mixed	−0.5	6.3	6.8	9	127	Intelligence & Assessment 1.5 · Inception
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗	Mixed	−1.5	2.9	4.5	5	114	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Debt service reset S11 ↗	Mixed	−3.3	5.6	9.0	10	146	Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗	Loser	−10.9	1.7	12.6	6	132	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗	Loser	−14.9	2.5	17.4	5	193	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S13 ↗	Loser	−17.0	1.3	18.3	5	144	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Market access opening S12 ↗	Loser	−23.1	5.1	28.2	8	167	Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception
Public service leap S18 ↗	Loser	−25.3	5.3	30.6	6	192	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Automated discovery step S17 ↗	Loser	−31.4	0.5	31.8	2	161	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Central African Rep., over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failure	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Broad fall in critical technology	0.1 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×32	—
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.7	—
Broad fall in national security	0.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×4.4	—
Broad fall in human capital	2.1 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×3.2	—
Broad fall in information and influence	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.7	—
Broad fall in governance and integrity	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×1.7	—
Broad fall in financial strength	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.1	—
Broad fall in production and innovation	1.5 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×3.0	—
Broad fall in trade and investment	1.8 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.6	—
Loss of advanced technology base	0.0 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	—	—
Collapse in energy security	1.0 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×3.0	—
Failure of digital lifelines	1.8 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×4.2	—
Food and water failure	2.2 Inception	— No route · rank 195	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.9	—
Defence readiness failure	1.3 Inception	— No route · rank 194	Already at the foot of the scale	×3.2	—
Loss of strategic deterrence	0.2 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×13	—
Strategic awareness failure	0.6 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×6.4	—
Education pipeline failure	2.6 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×3.5	—
Health system failure	2.5 Inception	— No route · rank 194	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.2	—
Breakdown of information trust	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.0	—
Diplomatic isolation	2.0 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.9	—
Breakdown of state function	2.6 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×1.6	—
Rule of law failure	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×1.7	—
Loss of financial stability	2.6 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×1.9	—
Loss of industrial capacity	1.6 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.9	—
Rupture in trade and supply	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	Already at the foot of the scale	×1.9	—

Routes to prosperity	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Broad rise in critical technology	0.1 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×17	—
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×12	—
Broad rise in national security	0.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×14	—
Broad rise in human capital	2.1 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×15	—
Broad rise in information and influence	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×12	—
Broad rise in governance and integrity	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×12	—
Broad rise in financial strength	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×13	—
Broad rise in production and innovation	1.5 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×20	—
Broad rise in trade and investment	1.8 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×12	—
Assured space services	0.3 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×25	—
Frontier AI and compute	0.2 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×19	—
Higher-value manufacturing	0.8 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×22	—
Reliable low-cost energy	1.0 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×11	—
Secure food and water supply	2.2 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×16	—
More deployable joint force	1.1 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×16	—
Adaptable skilled workforce	1.7 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×16	—
Stronger health and biotechnology	1.7 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×18	—
Stronger information environment	1.8 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×16	—
Wider international influence	2.0 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×9.5	—
Capable digital government	2.0 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×9.4	—
Trusted public institutions	2.2 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5	×9.4	—
Deeper long-term finance	2.2 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×14	—
Research translated into value	1.2 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×20	—
Higher-value international business	1.3 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×12	—
Sophisticated export strength	2.1 Inception	— No route · rank 193	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×15	—