Chad
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 44.2
- rank 31 of 197 · 3 years: 44.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −29.2
- rank 191 of 197 · 3 years: −29.5
- Shock absorbed
- 10%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.23
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; refugees hosted per head of population; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Chad’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.81 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.52 | −0.69 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.62 | −0.65 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.4 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.42 | −0.52 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.41 | −0.52 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.41 | −0.49 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Low 0.35 | −0.42 | −0.46 | −0.21 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.36 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.24 | −0.29 | −0.33 | −0.15 | ▲ 7 | 8 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.09 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.09 | −0.56 | −0.88 | −0.51 | −1.18 | −1.65 | −1.35 | −0.51 | −0.58 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.09 | −0.91 | −0.28 | −0.85 | −0.81 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.70 | −0.80 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.09 | −0.45 | · | −0.45 | −0.41 | −0.92 | −1.50 | −1.05 | −0.93 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.78 | −0.22 | −0.62 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.09 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.75 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.09 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.28 | −0.66 | −0.64 | −0.66 | −0.65 | −0.89 |
| AI labour shock | −0.09 | −0.24 | · | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.65 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.09 | −0.31 | −0.52 | · | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.61 | −0.26 | −0.30 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.07 | −0.42 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.40 | −0.38 | −0.32 | −0.41 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.06 | −0.32 | −0.27 | · | −0.36 | −0.37 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Chad is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 6 | 106 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 12 | 117 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.6 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 7 | 92 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −14.0 | 2.5 | 16.5 | 7 | 192 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −17.1 | 1.9 | 19.0 | 6 | 147 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −23.7 | 6.4 | 30.1 | 7 | 188 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −36.8 | 6.7 | 43.5 | 10 | 192 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −42.0 | 0.6 | 42.7 | 2 | 189 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −44.1 | 6.2 | 50.3 | 12 | 193 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −74.3 | 2.4 | 76.7 | 6 | 196 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Chad, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 96 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 185 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 175 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 185 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Health system failure | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 192 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×32 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 188 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.2 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.7 | — |
| Food and water failure | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.4 | — |
| Education pipeline failure | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 191 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×3.0 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 188 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |