China
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 4.4
- rank 196 of 197 · 3 years: 4.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +30.2
- rank 15 of 197 · 3 years: +30.0
- Shock absorbed
- 58%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.01
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 3of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Political Institutions & Civic Participation
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; land border with russia or belarus; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in China’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.93 | −0.58 | −1.31 | −0.56 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Health System Capability 12.4 · Established |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.76 | −0.50 | −1.13 | −0.47 | 0 | 12 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.81 | −0.43 | −1.05 | −0.41 | 0 | 8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.65 | −0.41 | −1.01 | −0.40 | 0 | 9 | Population Health 10.9 · Transitional |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.63 | −0.35 | −0.93 | −0.35 | 0 | 12 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 13.5 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.31 | −0.80 | −0.31 | 0 | 6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 12.7 · Established |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.44 | −0.29 | −0.69 | −0.28 | 0 | 6 | Population Health 11.1 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Low 0.33 | −0.27 | −0.44 | −0.18 | 0 | 6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.46 | −0.25 | −0.58 | −0.25 | 0 | 7 | Labour & Employment 11.1 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.20 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.08 | 0 | 4 | Internal Security & Order 13.5 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.87 | −0.31 | −0.69 | −0.31 | −0.78 | −0.83 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| AI labour shock | −0.56 | −0.25 | · | −0.68 | −0.59 | −0.70 | −0.59 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.55 | −0.30 | −0.60 | · | −0.67 | −0.62 | −0.58 | −0.25 | −0.29 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.44 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.53 | −0.46 | −0.50 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.45 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.45 | −0.42 | −0.36 | −0.46 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.40 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.48 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.18 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.15 | −0.17 | · | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.56 | −0.39 | −0.35 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.14 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 | · | −0.05 | −0.05 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what China is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +56.9 | 67.6 | 10.7 | 75 | 9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +53.1 | 53.5 | 0.4 | 73 | 7 | Technical & Vocational Skills 13 · Established |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +37.7 | 42.6 | 4.9 | 72 | 32 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +35.8 | 39.6 | 3.8 | 75 | 4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +29.8 | 30.4 | 0.5 | 53 | 16 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +28.0 | 29.0 | 1.0 | 72 | 5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 13 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +17.6 | 39.3 | 21.7 | 72 | 35 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +4.4 | 18.3 | 13.9 | 73 | 56 | Technical & Vocational Skills 13 · Established |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.6 | 16.1 | 16.7 | 48 | 78 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 3.6 | 13.2 | 50 | 191 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.3 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for China, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 188 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 15.2 Advanced → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 176 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 15.0 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 167 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Health system failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 162 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 181 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 17.6 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 158 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Food and water failure | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 128 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 144 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 18.7 Frontier → Advanced | 0.2% Remote · rank 106 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 132 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 17.4 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 113 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 15.5 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 127 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 179 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 16.5 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 135 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 17.6 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 92 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 16.5 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 137 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 17.3 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 17.3 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 13.6 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 122 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 101 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Health System Capability 13.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 17.8 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 17.4 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 17.0 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 93 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×6.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 17.7 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 26 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×6.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier AI and compute | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 17% Likely · rank 13 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Research translated into value | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 16% Likely · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 17.5 Advanced → Frontier | 16% Likely · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 11% Likely · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 11% Likely · rank 18 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.2 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 11% Likely · rank 14 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Capable digital government | 15.5 Advanced → Advanced | 9.5% Likely · rank 19 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 17.5 Advanced → Frontier | 7.4% Likely · rank 12 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 7.4% Likely · rank 12 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 15.5 Advanced → Advanced | 6.7% Likely · rank 11 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Secure food and water supply | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 5.5% Likely · rank 9 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 15.7 Advanced → Advanced | 5.2% Likely · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 17.8 Advanced → Frontier | 4.8% Possible · rank 22 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in human capital | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 4.6% Possible · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 17.4 Advanced → Frontier | 4.5% Possible · rank 17 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.7 Established → Established | 3.6% Possible · rank 13 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 10 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 13 |
| Assured space services | 18.1 Frontier → Frontier | 3.1% Possible · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in national security | 17.3 Advanced → Frontier | 3.0% Possible · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| More deployable joint force | 17.0 Advanced → Frontier | 3.0% Possible · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Wider international influence | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 1.1% Possible · rank 16 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 1.1% Possible · rank 13 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 15.0 Established → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 20 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.6 | Technical & Vocational Skills 13 |
| Stronger information environment | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 19.1 Frontier | — No route · rank 78 | Already at the top of the scale | ×1.6 | — |