Colombia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 9.5
- rank 166 of 197 · 3 years: 9.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −6.8
- rank 101 of 197 · 3 years: −6.8
- Shock absorbed
- 37%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.12
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Global funding seizure, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Colombia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.67 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.63 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.5 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.79 | −0.63 | −1.10 | −0.48 | ▼ 3 | 21 | Energy Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.64 | −0.62 | −0.96 | −0.42 | 0 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 4.1 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.65 | −0.61 | −0.83 | −0.36 | 0 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.55 | −0.41 | −0.69 | −0.30 | 0 | 15 | Labour & Employment 8.5 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.40 | −0.38 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.30 | −0.46 | −0.20 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.22 | −0.21 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.22 | −0.19 | −0.33 | −0.14 | ▲ 5 | 14 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.9 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.81 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.73 | −0.36 | −0.85 | −1.18 | −0.97 | −0.36 | −0.42 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.95 | −0.31 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| AI labour shock | −0.68 | −0.31 | · | −0.83 | −0.72 | −0.85 | −0.72 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.79 | −0.43 | −0.79 | · | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.25 | −0.27 | · | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.56 | −0.91 | −0.64 | −0.57 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.22 | −0.48 | −0.48 | · | −0.53 | −0.55 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.23 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.26 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Colombia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +20.9 | 25.3 | 4.4 | 40 | 59 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +7.0 | 20.8 | 13.9 | 36 | 46 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +6.5 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 52 | 29 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 30.2 | 24.5 | 42 | 53 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +2.2 | 21.2 | 19.0 | 50 | 61 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.3 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 12.1 | 14.5 | 41 | 120 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −8.1 | 8.6 | 16.7 | 25 | 82 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −9.9 | 9.6 | 19.5 | 19 | 66 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −21.4 | 10.2 | 31.6 | 49 | 172 | Intelligence & Assessment 9.2 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −37.4 | 9.0 | 46.4 | 34 | 170 | Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Colombia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 136 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 179 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 127 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 171 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 116 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Health system failure | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 138 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 176 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 118 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 81 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 161 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 112 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Artificial Intelligence 5.3 |
| Food and water failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 146 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 110 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 134 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 151 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Artificial Intelligence 5.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 161 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 126 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 111 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 2.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 63 | AI labour shock Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 62 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 61 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 59 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 |
| Capable digital government | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 64 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 60 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |