Costa Rica
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 15.5
- rank 130 of 197 · 3 years: 15.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +3.7
- rank 60 of 197 · 3 years: +3.9
- Shock absorbed
- 34%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.19
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate; share of exports going to china and the united states.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Costa Rica’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.74 | −0.77 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.97 | −0.77 | −1.34 | −0.59 | ▼ 4 | 26 | Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.75 | −0.75 | −1.15 | −0.51 | 0 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.71 | −0.69 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 25 | Artificial Intelligence 2.6 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.71 | −0.67 | −0.87 | −0.39 | 0 | 19 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 1.4 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.53 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.61 | −0.48 | −0.76 | −0.33 | 0 | 17 | Economic Output & Productivity 7.4 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.68 | −0.48 | −0.85 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.43 | −0.36 | −0.47 | −0.21 | 0 | 7 | Maritime Power 1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.28 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 7.6 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.45 | −1.07 | −0.71 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −1.03 | −0.96 | −0.83 | −1.06 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.16 | −0.33 | −0.92 | −0.41 | −1.04 | −1.11 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.80 | −0.40 | −0.29 | −0.97 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| AI labour shock | −0.77 | −0.35 | · | −0.93 | −0.82 | −0.96 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.88 | −0.48 | −0.75 | · | −1.08 | −1.01 | −0.94 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.70 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.27 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.63 | −0.62 | −0.85 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.29 | −0.32 | · | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.65 | −1.05 | −0.74 | −0.66 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.28 | −0.31 | −0.50 | −0.28 | −0.66 | −0.92 | −0.75 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.27 | −0.58 | −0.54 | · | −0.65 | −0.67 | · | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Costa Rica is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +19.9 | 24.3 | 4.4 | 35 | 61 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +17.8 | 19.5 | 1.7 | 26 | 51 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +7.0 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 34 | 79 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.3 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 18.4 | 11.5 | 35 | 47 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 22.7 | 16.6 | 46 | 52 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 28.5 | 24.3 | 36 | 56 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 49 | 60 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 9.6 | 14.9 | 34 | 128 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 13.7 | 19.2 | 27 | 68 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −7.1 | 10.5 | 17.5 | 20 | 59 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 2.3 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Costa Rica, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 2.3% Possible · rank 73 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Breakdown of state function | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 1.9% Possible · rank 134 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.3 Transitional → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 73 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 12.3 Established → Transitional | 1.3% Possible · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 31 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 60 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 86 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 12.7 Established → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 117 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 2 |
| Rule of law failure | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 142 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 53 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Food and water failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 79 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 95 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 92 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 110 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 103 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 113 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 9 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 72 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 92 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 72 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 73 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 63 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 |
| Capable digital government | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 12.3 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.3 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 64 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 67 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |