Côte d'Ivoire
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 19.7
- rank 110 of 197 · 3 years: 19.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −2.8
- rank 78 of 197 · 3 years: −2.7
- Shock absorbed
- 23%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.20
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Côte d'Ivoire’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.61 | −0.71 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 5 | 18 | Population Health 3.6 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.69 | −0.67 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.4 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.52 | −0.59 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 1.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.59 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.52 | −0.55 | −0.64 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.58 | −0.53 | −0.71 | −0.31 | 0 | 18 | Labour & Employment 4.2 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.51 | −0.52 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▲ 4 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.43 | −0.48 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 7 | 12 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.30 | −0.34 | −0.44 | −0.20 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.30 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.31 | −0.84 | −0.80 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.68 | −0.78 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.43 | −0.78 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −1.27 | −1.05 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| AI labour shock | −0.58 | −0.30 | · | −0.81 | −0.71 | −0.84 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.56 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.78 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.63 | −0.40 | −0.74 | · | −0.89 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.31 | −0.35 | · | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.72 | −1.17 | −0.82 | −0.73 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.78 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.27 | −0.64 | −0.59 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.58 | −0.49 | −0.63 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.55 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.19 | −0.43 | −0.43 | · | −0.47 | −0.49 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Côte d'Ivoire is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +10.6 | 13.9 | 3.3 | 21 | 35 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +9.0 | 15.5 | 6.5 | 33 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 6 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +5.8 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 28 | 89 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +1.6 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 19 | 126 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 22 | 71 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 20 | 152 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 17.3 | 23.6 | 20 | 106 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −7.0 | 18.6 | 25.6 | 31 | 97 | Technical & Vocational Skills 5.5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −7.7 | 3.8 | 11.5 | 17 | 80 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.7 | 3.3 | 25.9 | 9 | 114 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Côte d'Ivoire, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 149 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Breakdown of state function | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 181 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 145 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Health system failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 137 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 179 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Food and water failure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 98 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severe | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 138 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 169 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 127 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 132 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 177 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 172 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 160 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 169 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 121 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 110 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 166 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.3 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 168 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×3.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.5 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 130 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 118 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |