Croatia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 13.9
- rank 140 of 197 · 3 years: 13.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +5.4
- rank 55 of 197 · 3 years: +5.6
- Shock absorbed
- 39%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.17
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged 65 and over; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Croatia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.86 | −0.78 | −1.25 | −0.55 | ▼ 2 | 26 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.1 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.81 | −0.77 | −1.26 | −0.55 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.1 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.74 | −1.07 | −0.47 | 0 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.5 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.79 | −0.72 | −1.17 | −0.51 | 0 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 3.9 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.86 | −0.60 | −1.08 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 21 | Investment Attraction & Projection 7.2 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.53 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.1 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.70 | −0.50 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.5 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.50 | −0.37 | −0.65 | −0.29 | 0 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.5 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.47 | −0.36 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.35 | −0.32 | −0.55 | −0.24 | 0 | 9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.9 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.44 | −1.04 | −0.96 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −0.93 | −0.80 | −1.03 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.82 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −0.99 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.95 | −0.52 | −0.95 | · | −1.16 | −1.09 | −1.01 | −0.43 | −0.50 |
| AI labour shock | −0.80 | −0.37 | · | −0.97 | −0.85 | −1.00 | −0.85 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.40 | · | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.82 | −1.33 | −0.93 | −0.83 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.70 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.85 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.37 | −0.81 | −0.81 | · | −0.90 | −0.93 | · | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.43 | −0.22 | −0.50 | −0.70 | −0.58 | −0.22 | −0.25 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.55 | −0.18 | −0.44 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.45 | −0.45 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.35 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Croatia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +29.5 | 31.7 | 2.1 | 41 | 47 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +26.1 | 26.5 | 0.4 | 35 | 37 | Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +21.4 | 22.6 | 1.2 | 48 | 37 | Intelligence & Assessment 8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.4 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 41 | 57 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 21.7 | 19.3 | 50 | 60 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 19.6 | 19.4 | 23 | 47 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −1.4 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 29 | 51 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.6 | 33.1 | 34.6 | 42 | 85 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 54 | 132 | Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 5.9 | 11.2 | 41 | 127 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Croatia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 3.2% Possible · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 6.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 3.0% Possible · rank 35 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 12.1 Established → Transitional | 2.0% Possible · rank 47 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 17 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 1.6% Possible · rank 57 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 36 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 87 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 6.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 54 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 39 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 6.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 44 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 98 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 24 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 23 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.6 |
| Defence readiness failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 39 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.6 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Maritime Power 6.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 38 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Food and water failure | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 160 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Maritime Power 6.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 2.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 58 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 59 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 49 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.9 Foundational → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 46 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.9 | Energy Technologies 4 |
| Capable digital government | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 61 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 56 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 11.6 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 59 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.0 Nascent → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.8 Nascent → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 |
| Research translated into value | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Higher-value international business | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 49 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.8 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.4 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Energy Technologies 4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 51 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | — Remote · rank 53 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Assured space services | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 51 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 51 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 59 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | — Remote · rank 54 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Wider international influence | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | — Remote · rank 58 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Intelligence & Assessment 8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |