Cuba
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 21.9
- rank 95 of 197 · 3 years: 21.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −9.5
- rank 122 of 197 · 3 years: −9.3
- Shock absorbed
- 25%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.25
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; consumer price inflation; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Cuba’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.74 | −0.88 | −1.16 | −0.51 | ▼ 10 | 21 | Monetary & Currency Capability 1.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.80 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 0.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.71 | −1.07 | −0.47 | 0 | 20 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.1 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.69 | −0.69 | −0.90 | −0.39 | 0 | 20 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.4 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.66 | −0.66 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.68 | −0.63 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Financial System Depth & Access 2.4 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.51 | −0.53 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 1.7 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.43 | −0.49 | −0.64 | −0.28 | 0 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.42 | −0.46 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 3 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.31 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.46 | −1.10 | −0.38 | −1.03 | −0.99 | −1.06 | −1.13 | −0.84 | −0.97 |
| AI labour shock | −0.89 | −0.40 | · | −1.08 | −0.94 | −1.11 | −0.94 | −0.92 | −0.92 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.76 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.92 | −0.81 | −0.86 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.40 | −0.44 | −0.80 | −0.40 | −0.94 | −1.31 | −1.07 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.86 | −0.47 | −0.86 | · | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.95 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.32 | −0.35 | · | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.71 | −1.16 | −0.82 | −0.73 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.65 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.58 | −0.56 | −0.58 | −0.57 | −0.78 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.26 | −0.62 | −0.57 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.59 | −0.55 | −0.48 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.23 | −0.51 | −0.51 | · | −0.56 | −0.58 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Cuba is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +16.2 | 21.6 | 5.4 | 34 | 68 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.7 | 11.9 | 2.3 | 22 | 81 | Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.5 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 26 | 133 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −2.7 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 31 | 137 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4.5 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 17.1 | 22.5 | 28 | 129 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 10.3 | 20.7 | 20 | 131 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.7 | 26.1 | 38.8 | 33 | 143 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.0 | 5.1 | 23.1 | 15 | 153 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −20.7 | 8.1 | 28.7 | 23 | 163 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −24.6 | 7.0 | 31.6 | 14 | 130 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Cuba, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 135 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×2.1 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 91 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 |
| Health system failure | 13.2 Established → Transitional | 1.7% Possible · rank 11 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.5 |
| Food and water failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 22 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 132 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 136 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 75 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 11 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 141 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 81 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 72 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 162 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 88 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 89 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 126 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 18 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 83 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 134 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 140 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 106 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 107 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 121 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 67 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.5 |
| Capable digital government | 7.4 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Wider international influence | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |