Czechia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 10.3
- rank 161 of 197 · 3 years: 10.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +20.1
- rank 26 of 197 · 3 years: +20.3
- Shock absorbed
- 45%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.12
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Czechia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.95 | −0.83 | −1.37 | −0.60 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.86 | −0.70 | −1.33 | −0.58 | 0 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.80 | −0.64 | −1.18 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 7 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.64 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.5 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.65 | −0.54 | −0.97 | −0.43 | 0 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.7 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.73 | −0.44 | −0.80 | −0.35 | 0 | 11 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.58 | −0.37 | −0.72 | −0.32 | 0 | 9 | Economic Output & Productivity 11.1 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.36 | −0.30 | −0.56 | −0.24 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.4 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.43 | −0.29 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 7 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 10.9 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.41 | −0.27 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.7 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.47 | −1.12 | −0.91 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.08 | −1.01 | −0.86 | −1.11 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.75 | −0.37 | −0.31 | −0.91 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| AI labour shock | −0.71 | −0.32 | · | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.88 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.83 | −0.46 | −0.81 | · | −1.01 | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.38 | −0.43 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.71 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.64 | −0.62 | −0.64 | −0.63 | −0.86 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.34 | −0.73 | −0.66 | · | −0.81 | −0.84 | · | −0.30 | −0.30 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.22 | −0.24 | · | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.50 | −0.81 | −0.57 | −0.51 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.42 | −0.36 | −0.36 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.51 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Czechia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +47.0 | 47.3 | 0.3 | 51 | 14 | Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +44.8 | 46.6 | 1.8 | 56 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +29.4 | 30.4 | 1.0 | 57 | 18 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +20.5 | 45.9 | 25.4 | 57 | 29 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +18.8 | 37.0 | 18.2 | 43 | 25 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +11.1 | 22.9 | 11.8 | 47 | 25 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +9.8 | 14.7 | 4.9 | 54 | 32 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +9.3 | 30.7 | 21.4 | 61 | 39 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 11.5 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 56 | 70 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 64 | 172 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Czechia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 3.1% Possible · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 85 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 31 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 25 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 99 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Possible · rank 153 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 86 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 50 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 35 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 43 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 86 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 47 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 22 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 38 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 11 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 17 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Food and water failure | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 144 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 12.3 Established → Established | 7.6% Likely · rank 24 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 7.6 Foundational → Transitional | 5.1% Likely · rank 25 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 |
| Capable digital government | 13.4 Established → Advanced | 5.0% Likely · rank 27 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 13.0 Established → Established | 4.6% Possible · rank 26 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 10.4 Transitional → Established | 4.4% Possible · rank 21 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.1 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 4.1% Possible · rank 26 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 8.0 Foundational → Transitional | 3.7% Possible · rank 24 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 12.7 Established → Established | 2.6% Possible · rank 24 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Research translated into value | 12.6 Established → Established | 2.5% Possible · rank 24 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 2.3% Possible · rank 25 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Higher-value international business | 12.6 Established → Established | 2.1% Possible · rank 23 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.9 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 2.0% Possible · rank 24 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 12.1 Established → Established | 1.9% Possible · rank 23 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.8 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.6 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 24 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 1.7% Possible · rank 26 | Great-power détente Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 12.8 Established → Established | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 22 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.8 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 27 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 12.0 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 21 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.7 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 24 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Stronger information environment | 10.4 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 27 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 13.1 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 29 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Assured space services | 6.4 Foundational → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 23 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Wider international influence | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 30 | Great-power détente Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.0 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 |
| Broad rise in national security | 7.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 28 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 |
| More deployable joint force | 7.8 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 27 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 |