DR Congo
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 46.5
- rank 27 of 197 · 3 years: 46.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −15.7
- rank 168 of 197 · 3 years: −15.4
- Shock absorbed
- 12%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of exports going to china and the united states; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; industry as a share of gdp; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in DR Congo’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.84 | −0.90 | −1.03 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 24 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.75 | −0.88 | −1.00 | −0.45 | ▼ 6 | 22 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.64 | −0.78 | −0.90 | −0.39 | ▲ 1 | 25 | Financial System Depth & Access 1.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.57 | −0.72 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.48 | −0.65 | −0.74 | −0.32 | ▲ 3 | 22 | Population Health 2.1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.60 | −0.64 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 20 | Labour & Employment 0.9 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.53 | −0.64 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 4 | 22 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.41 | −0.50 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.43 | −0.47 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.27 | −0.25 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 4 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.23 | −0.61 | −1.02 | −0.55 | −1.29 | −1.79 | −1.47 | −0.55 | −0.63 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.40 | −0.50 | −0.45 | −0.50 | −1.16 | −1.11 | −1.16 | −1.13 | −1.56 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.17 | −0.38 | −0.93 | −0.42 | −1.05 | −1.12 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.36 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −1.00 | −0.87 | −0.94 | −0.87 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.19 | −0.83 | −0.29 | −0.78 | −0.74 | −0.80 | −0.85 | −0.64 | −0.73 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.18 | −0.44 | · | −0.44 | −0.40 | −0.89 | −1.46 | −1.02 | −0.91 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.20 | −0.89 | −0.75 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.80 | −0.68 | −0.88 |
| AI labour shock | −0.23 | −0.27 | · | −0.73 | −0.64 | −0.75 | −0.64 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.26 | −0.36 | −0.67 | · | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.30 | −0.35 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −0.43 | −0.43 | · | −0.47 | −0.49 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what DR Congo is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 12 | 88 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 15 | 89 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −0.2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 17 | 124 | Intelligence & Assessment 3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −0.2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 11 | 132 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 12 | 83 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −9.7 | 6.4 | 16.1 | 12 | 183 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −19.3 | 9.3 | 28.7 | 10 | 178 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −24.8 | 4.9 | 29.7 | 8 | 172 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −38.6 | 11.1 | 49.7 | 14 | 193 | Digital & Services Trade 2.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −45.7 | 1.2 | 46.9 | 4 | 195 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for DR Congo, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 2.7% Possible · rank 52 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Breakdown of state function | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 168 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 118 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Major | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 154 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 85 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Health system failure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 120 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 132 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 1.5 |
| Food and water failure | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 97 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 118 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 2.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 186 | Core disaster Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.6 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 2.1 of 3 | ×4.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 177 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |